Mets vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Picks Up Win Behind Stellar Strider Performance

Once again, these two divisional rivals will meet again, but this time in Georgia. With New York holding a 5.5-game lead on the division, will Atlanta be able to cover ground? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for the Mets vs. Braves.

Last Updated: Aug 15, 2022 3:50 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Spencer Strider Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It's the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets meeting again. This time for a four-game set in Atlanta. 

These two last squared off in Flushing a little over a week ago, where Atlanta was — well — flushed. It has played much better since then, winning seven of its last ten — including back-to-back sweeps of the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox.

Who will win the opening game of the series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Mets vs. Braves on August 15, 2022.

Mets vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Odds released this morning with the Braves as -150 favorites, while the Mets returned at +135. Since then, the odds have primarily stayed the same, but a few books have moved Atlanta to -145.

The total opened at 8.5 and has dropped to 8.0 since then. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 8/15/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Monday, August 15, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Mets vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (13-4, 3.76 ERA): To be one of the proverbial "weak spots" of the Mets' starting pitching, Carlos Carrasco has been pretty good. June was otherworldly, as he posted an ERA of just .90 and finished the month with three straight starts without surrendering a single run. He's come back to earth since then but still has been solid. Carrasco doesn't do anything exceptionally well but is solid all around. 

Spencer Strider (6-4, 3.11 ERA): Strider has been the strikeout king this season and continues to lead baseball in strikeouts per nine innings. Additionally, he's been a bit unlucky in his first entire season behind the mound with an xERA of 2.70. Not only is that one of the best in the league, but it's also the highest among any pitcher in the Braves rotation. Strider is a heavy fastball throwing righty. It makes up over 68% of his pitching arsenal and has posted a -12 run value on the season.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the Mets' last five games against NL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves

Mets vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This feels like the last real shot for Atlanta to win the division. Sure there are still nearly two months left, but with the way New York is playing, it can't afford to lose a home series. So although they've burned me many times in this position so far this season, I'm giving the Braves more backing and one more shot not to burn me again. 

If you look back at the last time Spencer Strider faced these Mets, the circumstances surrounding his departure from the game were quite odd. 

He threw the first few innings with five strikeouts in what looked like business as usual. Then, New York had a few multiple odd hits, including a double-play ball that hit third base to bounce into the outfield and score two runs.

Long story short, Strider got quite unlucky against the Mets, and I don't expect it to happen again. If you're going by the metrics, you'll also back him.

His biggest issue has been hard-hit balls, and as I've spoken about endlessly throughout the season, New York doesn't hit the ball particularly hard. So I like Strider to have a reasonably dominant showing tonight.

As for Carlos Carrasco, the matchup is solid. He's given up just three earned runs in two appearances against the Braves this season. He's likely had so much success because Atlanta chases more pitches than anyone in the league, and that's when he excels.

This isn't a substantial edge, but I think this is the right spot for the Braves. The pressure is on them squarely throughout this series, and it's hard not to back them to at least respond to that pressure in Game 1. 

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-145 at Circa)

Over/Under analysis

The total is a side I feel much more confident in playing. I'm happily grabbing the Under here overall, but I think it best to focus on a team total.

One of my favorite aspects of backing the Under here is that I'm getting Spencer Strider in a bounce-back spot. In theory, I believe he has a good matchup against these Mets' hitters even if the last contest didn't show that. But when you pair that aspect with it, I feel good about him keeping New York at bay.

That's pretty much the entire thinking with this play. I've already spoken about why I think that Strider is a bad matchup for Mets' hitters. In addition, I think he'll be licking his chops to bounce back from his previous start against them.

My projections see the best value on the first five market here with about a 15% edge. Again I'm backing a dominant Spencer Strider on the mound. 

Prediction: Mets team total Under 1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I will go with the narrative I've established throughout this article for the best bet. I'm backing Strider to bounce back in a big way, so I'll support what he does best: Strikeouts.

Before the oddities that led to him being pulled against the Mets, Strider was on pace to record double-digit strikeouts. The logic for this play doesn't get more complicated than that.

I'm expecting him not to have those troubles today and get to double-digit punchouts against a lineup that doesn't fare well against elite velocity. So let's look at the times he's done this to paint a clearer picture.

Strider has recorded double-digit strikeouts four times this season against the Philadelphia Phillies, St Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, and Cincinnati Reds. All these teams except one had something in common: They all ranked in the bottom ten of hard-hit rate.

When sizing up if a pitcher will accumulate strikeouts, you're looking at the opposing team's swing rate and going from there. With Strider, I don't feel that's the case. It's simply about him not being attacked at his weak points and staying in the game — and if he can do that — he's going to rack up a significant number.

I wouldn't place this wager without taking the essential prop of over 5.5 strikeouts at +110. You could also apply the "ladder approach" that has become quite popular. But value-wise, this is hands down the best bet in the game, with an edge of nearly 20%. So I'm taking it and hoping to cash big tonight. 

Spencer Strider Prop Pick: Record at least 10 strikeouts (+800 at FanDuel)

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