The Toronto Blue Jays took the series opener from the New York Mets on Monday, and they’ll try to keep it rolling behind Kevin Gausman against Mets rookie Nolan McLean.
McLean brings one of the nastiest sinkers in baseball, so I’m zeroing in on the few Toronto bats built to handle it, namely Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho.
Read on for my Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Tuesday, June 30 matchup.
Mets vs Blue Jays predictions
Mets vs Blue Jays best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
While the Toronto Blue Jays offense slumps, Ernie Clement keeps hitting.
He’s already an All-Star starter thanks to his consistent approach at the dish, and that’s what we’re leaning on here. Clement has cashed this Over in four of his last five games, usually by stacking singles, though an early double would do the trick just as well.
Clement is an excellent foil to New York Mets starter Nolan McLean. McLean has a devastating sinker, and Clement loves hunting that pitch. He’s slugging .477 off the sinker, McLean’s best offering, and he’s got the quick, clean cut you need to square up a pitcher with that much movement.
I’d play Clement’s total bases prop as low as +130.
COVERS INTEL: McLean throws the best sinker in baseball at +15 run value, and Clement is one of the few hitters built to spoil it, ranking ninth among qualified MLB hitters in batting average at .299.
Mets vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
I’m anchoring the same-game parlay with the Blue Jays moneyline. Even with the bats scuffling, this is the better team, especially on defense. Kevin Gausman profiles well against a Mets lineup that sits near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching on the road.
From there, give me Over 7.5 runs. It’s a low number, and I don’t have much faith in the Mets bullpen.
Daulton Varsho sat Monday, so he’s rested, and the price on him to record a hit is too strong to pass up.
Clement joins him after picking up at least one hit in four of his last five games, with a contact-heavy profile that bodes well against McLean’s nasty arsenal.
Mets vs Blue Jays SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Over 7.5
- Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
- Ernie Clement Over 0.5 hits
Mets vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+440)
McLean owns the best sinker in the majors, a genuinely nasty pitch that moves a ton. Toronto has mostly struggled against the sinker this year, with one big exception.
Varsho slugs .500 against it over a healthy 150-pitch sample, and his +2 run value on the sinker is the best mark on the Blue Jays.
It’s been a while since Varsho went deep, but his short, uppercut swing is exactly the kind of stroke that could solve McLean and his dangerous arsenal.
With Varsho rested and locked in on the one pitch McLean leans on most, there’s real value at +440. But given how volatile home run props are, I’m keeping this to a quarter unit.
- Best bets: 1-0, +1.2 units
- SGPs: 0-1, -1 units
- HR picks: 0-1, -0.25 units
Mets vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: New York +100 | Toronto -120
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Blue Jays trend
The Mets have lost nine of their last 10 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Mets vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-30-2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Sportsnet |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (4-5, 4.03 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (4-6, 4.36 ERA) |
Mets vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mets vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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