Marlins vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: O's Lineup Will Be All Over Alcantara

Two of the most surprising teams in baseball will face off to start the second half of the season as the Miami Marlins visit the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night.

Miami (53-39) is well back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but has control of the first Wild Card position in the National League. Baltimore (54-35) is in a similar position, but has closed to within two games of the Tampa Bay Rays atop the AL East.

Tonight’s game offers a good test out of the All-Star Break for two teams that are now eying potential playoff runs in October. We’ll break down which side has the edge in our free MLB picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Orioles on July 14.

Marlins vs Orioles odds

Marlins vs Orioles predictions

Sandy Alcantara was one of the breakout stars of 2022. He impressed not only with his 2.28 ERA, but also by throwing 228.2 innings and six complete games, both of which easily led the majors. Heading into 2023, it looked as though the Marlins would need another huge year out of Alcantara if it hoped to contend in a crowded NL East field.

Miami is obviously in contention, but Alcantara hasn’t played the big role most expected him to. The 27-year-old has regressed in almost every category, putting up a 4.72 ERA in his first 18 starts. Alcantara is giving up more hits and home runs, and is walking more batters while compiling fewer strikeouts. Whatever magic Alcantara found in 2022 seems to be missing this year.

There have been outings where Alcantara looked like the pitcher he was last year,  but he has been plagued by inconsistency. He has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last eight starts. Alcantara has also given up five home runs during that stretch, including three in his last two games. He’s still eating innings, but those innings aren’t the dominant ones he was putting together last year.

Alcantara will face a difficult test against a Baltimore team that ranks among the best offensive squads in the league. Left-handed bats have been particularly difficult for Alcantara to deal with, and the Orioles can stack them effectively tonight. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, and Cedric Mullins are all good-to-outstanding bats that can line up from the left side of the plate.

Baltimore has won its last five games, and will come out of the All-Star break playing meaningful baseball at home. This is a game that the Orioles should win without much trouble. I’m taking Baltimore on the moneyline tonight.

My best bet: Orioles moneyline (-122 at WynnBet)

Marlins vs Orioles same-game parlay

Orioles moneyline

Over 8.5 runs

Adley Rutschman to record a hit

Anthony Santander to record a hit

+316 at FanDuel

My same-game parlay pick for tonight’s game begins by taking the Orioles to win outright, as that’s my best bet of the game. After that, we’re going to count on Baltimore to generate some offense to take us the rest of the way in our SGP.

I’m throwing in the Over here, as 8.5 runs is a pretty low number given the offensive production of both teams and the pitching matchup at play here. Alcantara has struggled, but so has Orioles starter Dean Kremer, who has thrown to a similar 4.78 ERA this year.

I expect the lefty bats in the Baltimore lineup to have a field day tonight, so I’m taking two of the heaviest hitters to get at least one knock. To round out the SGP, let’s take both Rutschman and Santander to pick up a hit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marlins vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Orioles opened tonight’s game as a -114 favorite. The consensus line now sits at around Baltimore -130, though there are still numbers as short as -122 available on the Orioles. If you want to bet on the Marlins, you can get +120 at some sites.

These have been two of the most surprising teams in Major League Baseball, and both have been great for bettors this year. The Marlins have made gamblers 16 units on the moneyline this season, while the Orioles have been even better, profiting more than 20 units on the year.

Baltimore’s lineup should be able to get to Alcantara, who has particularly struggled to be effective against left-handed hitting this year. The Orioles score runs, and will continue to do so tonight. I’m taking Baltimore on the moneyline.

The Over/Under tonight opened at 8.5 runs, and has stayed at that number. There’s a little juice towards the Over, which you can get at -115, while -105 is the price on the Under at most sites.

The Marlins have been close to neutral on the total this season, with the Under holding a 45-43 advantage in Miami’s games. On the other hand, the Baltimore lineup has frequently pushed the Orioles above the number, with the Over going 46-37 in their games this season.

With both starting pitchers boasting ERAs that are approaching 5.00, this doesn’t look like a game that’s lining up to be a pitching duel. I expect both sides to score runs, with the Orioles doing most of the work. I’m leaning solidly towards the Over tonight.

Trend to know

The Orioles are 5-0 SU in their last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Orioles

Marlins vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.72 ERA): After Alcantara put together a remarkable season in 2022, he has come back down to Earth this year. Alcantara is pitching to a respectable 1.251 WHIP, but that’s still up dramatically from the 0.980 number he posted last year. He’s also giving up more home runs, not lasting as long into games, and striking out fewer batters. Alcantara last threw on July 7, when he gave up just one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Dean Kremer (9-4, 4.78 ERA): Like Alcantara, Kremer is struggling to live up to the promise he showed in 2022. After becoming a solid part of the Baltimore rotation last year, Kremer has regressed in 2023, mostly due to his propensity for giving up the longball. Kremer has allowed 20 home runs in just 98 innings of work, even as he has increased his strikeout rate to 8.4 per nine innings. In his last outing, Kremer gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out 10 over seven innings against the New York Yankees.

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic