Mariners vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: Ranger Rovers

The Mariners are surging and Dane Dunning is ripe for the trouncing. See why our MLB betting picks are backing the embattled Rangers starter to have another rough outing with a shallow bullpen behind him.

Last Updated: Aug 13, 2022 12:22 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Dane Dunning Texas Rangers MLB picks
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We have the second matchup of this three-game AL West intradivisional series with the Texas Rangers hosting the Seattle Mariners. This is the 15th meeting between these two clubs this season, with Seattle winning 12 of the first 14 (86%).

Will Seattle continue its domination of Texas this season, or can the Rangers grab a victory as a short home favorite? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs Rangers on Saturday, August 13.

Mariners vs Rangers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mariners were unveiled as slight –120 favorites on Friday morning and have since dropped to short underdogs at -105. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and has stayed at that number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mariners vs Rangers predictions

Picks made on 8/13/2022 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mariners vs Rangers game info

Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date: Saturday, August 13, 2022
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Mariners vs Rangers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Marco Gonzales (7-11, 3.98 ERA): While Gonzales has been hit-or-miss so far this season, he has struggled recently. Over his last five starts, Gonzales is 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Two of those five starts were against Texas, going 1-0 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Relying on four pitches this season, Gonzales’ cutter has been particularly ineffective. While he only throws it 16.8% of the time, opponents boast a .363 BA, .563 SLG, and .419 wOBA against that pitch.

Dane Dunning (2-6, 4.04 ERA): Right-hander Dane Dunning will be making his 22nd start of the season in this game. Dunning has not been effective this season, a trend I expect to continue against Seattle. While Dunning utilizes four pitches in his arsenal, he heavily relies on his sinker, throwing it 40.6% of the time. The problem is that his sinker is not very good, evidenced by opponents’ .274 BA, .421 SLG, and .366 wOBA against that pitch.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Dane Dunning has allowed six or more hits in five of his last seven starts (71%).  Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rangers

Mariners vs Rangers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Entering this game in outstanding form, the Mariners have won 7 of their last 10 games (70%), which should continue as Seattle is slated to go against right-hander Dane Dunning.

Through 73 career plate appearances against Dunning, this current Mariners roster possesses a .237 xBA, .407 xSLG, and .325 xwOBA. The Mariners have won two of the three they’ve played against Dunning this season.

Following Dunning is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, the Rangers’ relief pitching ranks just 23rd in the league in ERA, 24th in WHIP, 22nd in BA, 20th in SLG, 23rd in wOBA, and 28th in hard-hit percentage.

To make matters worse for this Rangers pitching staff, they went with a “bullpen game” last night and utilized six of their relievers. With a short bullpen available, Dunning will be forced to go further into the game, even if he’s struggling.

Over their last 10 games, the Mariners are averaging 4.2 runs scored, 7.2 hits, and 2.6 extra base hits per game. While Seattle has been trending up, the Rangers have been trending in the opposite direction. Over its last 11 games, Texas has lost eight times (73%).

Prediction: Mariners moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

While I expect the Mariners lineup to continue its success against Dunning and the rest of the Rangers pitching staff, Texas is capable of running it up against left-hander Marco Gonzales. Entering this game in poor form, Gonzales probably will not turn it around against this Rangers lineup.

Because of Gonzales’ poor performances, the Over has been a good trend in his starts. There have now been nine or more total runs scored in four of his last six outings (67%).

Through 157 career plate appearances against Gonzales, this current Rangers roster boasts a .276 BA, .441 SLG, and .325 wOBA. Since July 1, Texas ranks fifth in the league in BA, second in SLG, second in OPS, second in wOBA, and second in hard-hit percentage when facing left-handers at home.

With this stretch of good hitting, there have been nine or more total runs scored in nine of the Rangers’ last 14 games (64%). Seattle should be able to score a bunch of runs in this contest with how poor Dunning has been, especially considering Texas’ depleted bullpen.

Texas should also be able to score plenty of runs against the struggling Gonzales, particularly with how well the Rangers have been hitting left-handers at home. With these facts in mind and the recent trends, the Over is an attractive play in this game.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at PointsBet)

Best bet

With all that being said, I'm not confident enough to make the Mariners moneyline our Best Bet because of how poor Gonzales has been on the mound. I am also not confident enough to take the Over because of how inconsistent this Rangers lineup can be.

The play I’m most confident in is for the Rangers’ starter to have yet another poor outing. Allowing six or more hits in five of his last seven starts (71%), Dunning should struggle in this contest once again.

This Mariners lineup is extremely talented, especially in terms of their metrics. Looking at the nine hitters Seattle used in last night’s game, seven hitters boast a season-long xBA north of .250.

That stat puts this Mariners lineup as one of the best-hitting in the league in terms of depth, which should cause problems for Dunning, especially as the game progresses into deeper innings.

Dane Dunning prop pick: Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115)

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