Mariners vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bats Come Alive by the Bay

The Seattle Mariners look to complete the road sweep tonight after taking both of the first two games of the series from the San Francisco Giants. 

Looking at MLB odds, the bookmakers aren’t buying it — the home team is favored to get back on track with a win. 

I have my eyes set on the total rather than taking a side for my best bet in this matchup. The weather and starting pitching matchup create a recipe where I find value in the number of runs expected for Game 3 over anything else.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Giants on Wednesday, July 5. 

Mariners vs Giants odds

Mariners vs Giants predictions

Tommy Milone gets the call for Seattle. The 36-year-old left-hander is making just his second start of the season and has a 4.47 ERA across 11 starts at Triple-A Tacoma. He’s been getting batted around badly when he has been on the mound over the last eight years:

• 5.71 ERA in 2016
• 7.63 ERA in 2017
• 5.81 ERA in 2018
• 4.76 ERA in 2019
• 6.69 ERA in 2020
• 6.43 ERA in 2021
• 5.40 ERA in 2022

The veteran has been trending in one way for a long time now and it’s certainly not positive — his ERA has been below 5.40 just once across what amounts to two presidential terms. 

San Francisco has gone cold at the plate, posting a league-worst 55 wRC+ and .251 wOBA across the last 10 days. The Giants have the highest K-rate in MLB (29%) during that time to pair with an abysmal .191 batting average and .559 OPS. 

Those numbers are sure to correct sooner or later considering this is a decent lineup that has a 101 wRC+ and .320 wOBA on the year. They’re returned to health with both Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto back in action and near the top of the lineup. I expect a productive outing from this offense in a squash matchup now that they have two impact bats back in place. 

The Mariners, meanwhile, have been hot at the plate. They’ve posted a 113 wRC+ and .326 wOBA at the dish against right-handed pitchers across the last 10 days. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that they are 7-3 O/U during that span. Tonight, they face Alex Cobb, a reliable starter who has concerningly seen his xERA creep up to 4.02 and his barrel rate rise to 6.6% — two figures that are at their highest level since 2020. 

Cobb’s surface-level numbers haven’t suffered yet, but I have some premonitions considering his xBA, HardHit%, Whiff%, and fastball spin rate all rank in the Bottom 25th percentile or worse. 

If there weren’t enough reasons to fancy runs in Game 3, consider that the weather forecast is calling for 17.2 mph winds blowing straight out to center field. Give me the Over, and I’d play it up to 9.

My best bet: Over 8.5 (-102 at FanDuel) 

Mariners vs Giants same-game parlay

Over 8.5 (-105)

Giants -1.5 (+120)

JD Davis 2+ total bases (+110)

+500 at DraftKings

This SGP will feature three legs — the first being my best bet on the Over as outlined above, and the other two correlating to that play. 

For the second leg, we’ll take the Giants -1.5 alternate run line at +120 odds. The Giants won all four of Cobb’s starts in June and hold a substantial starting pitching matchup advantage tonight. San Francisco has tended to avoid getting swept, winning each of their last five Game 3s when dropping the first two games of a series. This is a terrific spot for them to flip the script at home in a very favorable matchup. 

Our third and final leg will feature Giants third basemen JD Davis to gain 2+ total bases at +110 odds. He’s gone over this mark in four straight games and now gets as good of a matchup as possible at this level of the sport. With the wind blowing out at 17.2 mph, it would not surprise me at all if the powerful Davis (.171 ISO) laces an extra-base hit. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Looking at current odds, the San Francisco can be had between -163 and -175 depending on the book. The best comeback available on Seattle is +148. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

The Mariners have turned things around recently, winning four straight games. That follows a spell in which they dropped five of six, so it’s fair to say this is a mercurial squad. They usually play better at home, however, and are 6-14 across their last 20 road games. 

I like the Giants in the matchup as outlined above considering they have a sizable starting pitching matchup and the lineup has returned to health. 

The total is set at 8.5 and I’m on the Over. Milone has been soft-tossing batting practice to batters for nearly a decade now and the wind is blowing out at 17.2 mph straight to center field. 

If you’re someone who looks at bullpens for each matchup, there isn’t much to glean in this matchup. The two sides have very comparable bullpens as they have an identical ERA of 3.86 in relief. 

Trend to know

The Mariners are 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Giants

Mariners vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Tommy Milone (0-0, 1.93 ERA): Milone gets a start after Bryce Miller hit the IL. The 36-year-old left-hander has just one appearance this season when he threw 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Colorado Rockies back in April. A year ago, he posted a 5.45 xERA and 6.89 FIP across 16 2/3 innings out of the pen, and in 2021 he had a 5.02 xERA and 4.17 FIP across just 14 innings for the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Alex Cobb (5-2, 3.12 ERA): Cobb has been a steady presence for the Giants. He’s kept his ERA no higher than 3.76 for the last three seasons — one with the Los Angeles Angels (2021) and the last two with the Giants. His 3.20 FIP is excellent, but his 4.02 xERA isn’t quite as pristine and his barrels are way up (3.7% last year, 6.6% this year). 

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