The Seattle Mariners won an epic 15-inning elimination game over the Detroit Tigers to advance to the ALCS, starting Sunday at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
With less than 48 hours to start anew, and a pitching staff that’s definitely taxed against a Toronto Blue Jays team that popped champagne in the Bronx on Wednesday night, it has to be advantage: Toronto.
My Mariners vs. Blue Jays series predictions and MLB picks explain why the Jays will be returning to the World Series for the first time since 1993.
Best Mariners vs Blue Jays predictions
- Blue Jays to win series (-120 at BET99)
- Blue Jays to win in six games (+500 at BET99)
Mariners vs Blue Jays market snapshot
The Toronto Blue Jays are the -120 favorite to win the ALCS at BET99, and are currently +315 in the World Series odds. Only the Dodgers have shorter odds, sitting at +120.
The Seattle Mariners come in at +100 to topple Toronto and are right behind the Jays with +325 odds to win the Fall Classic.
Toronto’s series handicap of -1.5 pays out at +170 odds, while Seattle’s +1.5 line is a short -210.
If you want to pick the correct series score, the largest juice is for a Blue Jays sweep at +1300, while winning the series in five, six, or seven games comes in at +500. Seattle is +450 to win in seven, +550 in six, +600 in five, and +1200 to sweep.
Mariners vs Blue Jays series winner prediction
Pick: Blue Jays to win series (-120 at BET99)
Even if they didn’t own the rest advantage (which they do), I would still take Toronto to win this series so long as they have home field advantage (which they also do).
The Jays scored 431 runs at home in the regular season and pounded Yankees pitching in the first two games of the ALDS under the dome, scoring 23 runs.
What might have been surprising was the sudden pop in the Blue Jays bats. They were tied for 11th in home runs in the regular season, but have mashed nine bombs in the playoffs, trailing only the Cubs for the top spot.
Other than that, Toronto does what it always does: works counts and keeps turning the lineup over with their hitting, which is strong through the entire order.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr certainly deserves his flowers for tearing the laces off the ball during the series, going 9-for-17 with three homers and nine RBI, but there were so many others going well.
Daulton Varsho had seven hits in the series, five of those went for extra bases, while Ernie Clement matched Guerrero’s nine hits, but in three fewer at-bats. In total, only four Jays on the roster failed to connect on at least one extra-base hit.
As Seattle showed in Game 5 against Detroit, there is no quit in them, but they’re going to need a Luis Castillo gem or perhaps a Cal Raleigh wrecking-ball game to get out of Toronto with a crucial split.
If not, I just think Toronto is too strong to lose four of the final five games in the series.
Mariners vs Blue Jays total series games prediction
Pick: Blue Jays to win in six games (+500 at BET99)
Of the teams still standing in the postseason, Seattle’s pitching has been solid, ranked third in ERA at 3.29, and only the Dodgers have struck out more batters.
Toronto showed both sides of its bullpen against the Yankees, which is, amongst baseball circles, the teams’ biggest critique.
Game 3 in the Bronx had them blow a 6-1 lead to lose 9-6, before the entire staff came together and shut down the best offense in baseball to advance.
In all, the Blue Jays used eight relievers, limiting the Yankees to six hits and two earned runs in a 5-2 clinching win.
Statistically, Toronto has the worst bullpen of any team left standing (6.30 ERA), and the highest batting average against (.296).
There’s a reason John Schneider went with a three-man starting rotation in the ALDS, and why he’s reluctant to expand it in the ALCS – he’s just not confident enough in one arm going six. He’d rather patchwork it through to the end, manufacturing outs wherever he can get them.
In a closely contested series, I think Toronto’s bullpen could flop at times. Rookie Trey Yesavage won’t be throwing no-hitters and fanning 11 each start.
Pitching will be a concern at some point for Toronto, and that will cost them a game or two. Despite the Jays being better set up to advance, it may take a little longer than expected.
