The third installment of this four-game AL West series gets underway Saturday with the second-place Houston Astros hosting the fourth-place Seattle Mariners.
Seattle dominated each of the first two matchups by a combined score of 15-2.
Will the Mariners take care of business once again, or can the Astros enact their revenge at Minute Maid Park? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs Astros on Saturday, July 8.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros predictions
Left-hander Framber Valdez is slated to take the mound for the Houston Astros in this matchup, and he should be a great candidate to back. The current betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young, Valdez is 7-6 (don't let the W-L record fool you) with a 2.49 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 16 starts.
This strong season will likely continue against the Seattle Mariners, a team he has notoriously dominated. Through nine career appearances against them, Valdez is 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA and 53 strikeouts.
Specifically, we are going to back the left-hander in the strikeout department. Entering Saturday, he ranks in the 59th percentile or higher in both K% and Whiff%.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop as low as 6.5 — after opening at 5.5 overnight — at most books as of early Saturday afternoon. Hitting has been the Achilles' Heel all season for Seattle, a team that ranks in the Bottom 8 of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.
Additionally, the Mariners struggle with avoiding the punchout. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Seattle ranks 26th in the league in K%.
Looking at Saturday's projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 20% this year. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Valdez.
Through 91 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Mariners roster possesses a fade-worthy 23.1 K% and 29.2 Whiff%. Not only has Valdez recorded more than 6.5 strikeouts in eight of his past 13 starts, but he has also surpassed that figure in three of his past four outings against Seattle.
My best bet: Framber Valdez Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay
Framber Valdez Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120)
Under 7 (-104)
Framber Valdez 7+ strikeouts (+106)
This same-game parlay builds upon itself with each selection. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let us look at the other two.
On the other side, right-handed rookie Bryan Woo takes the mound for Seattle. Through six starts, he is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
While those surface-level stats are sort-of “take it or leave it," his underlying metrics are extremely impressive. Currently, Woo ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%.
Houston ranks right around the middle of the pack in pretty much every key hitting statistic, so Woo should not have too many problems with that lineup. With that said, the Astros still boast the stronger lineup and starting pitcher, so we could see them win in a low-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mariners vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Houston opened as a -140 favorite before being slightly bet down to -135 and even as long as -120. This small movement makes sense, considering that the opening odds should have given Woo more respect on the mound.
Yes, he obviously is not on Valdez’s level, but Woo can certainly hang with him. In fact, his stats are a bit skewed due to one poor outing on the road against the Texas Rangers, one of the best hitting teams in the league.
In his five starts since then, Woo is 1-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Therefore, you will not be shocked to learn that the juice quickly shifted to the Under since opening.
I would not be surprised if we see this number even drop to seven by the time first pitch rolls around.
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Trend to know
Framber Valdez has recorded at least seven strikeouts in eight of his past 13 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, July 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Bryan Woo (1-1, 4.08 ERA): The Mariners could have something special in the sixth-round pick out of Cal Poly. Outside of one poor performance against arguably the best lineup in baseball in the second start of his career, Woo has been terrific. In the five starts since then, he is 1-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that these are not fluky results, with Woo ranking in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and K%.
Framber Valdez (7-6, 2.49 ERA): It will be a great opportunity for Woo to perform directly on the other side of Valdez, who is one of the current gold standards in pitching. The odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young, Valdez looks to continue his terrific campaign against a Mariners team that has struggled at the dish. Through nine career appearances against them, Valdez is 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA and 53 strikeouts.
