August was a profitable month on the dinger home front, but I have big plans for September. Home run props and MLB player props are getting smacked on the way out the door.
Ronel Blanco is somehow back in the MLB, and his HR/9 numbers are some of the worst in all of baseball, while Fernando Tatis Jr. will continue to beat up lefties as Nick Lodolo struggles post injury list.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1.
MLB home run props for today
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Colson Montgomery 
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Home run prediction: Colson Montgomery (21.5%)
This might not be the only White Sox batter on my home run card. Ronel Blanco is back in the Big Leagues, and among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, he owns the fifth-worst HR/9 at 2.7 and the 11th-worst HR/FB rate at 23.3%.
He also gave up 10 runs and three dingers in his last Triple-A start. He's in perfect dinger form.
I'm skipping Tristan Peters because of the pinch-hit risk and Munetaka Murakami because of his recent form, and taking Colson Montgomery at a price well above three dollars.
He sits one homer shy of 30 and went deep last night against the Houston bullpen, which is also missing four arms today. Montgomery's power numbers over the last two weeks rank behind only Peters, who has been on a mission.
Ultimately, getting a 30-homer guy in the best home run matchup on the board at this price is value town. I have the fair probability around 24-25%.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Chicago Sports Network
Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (24.2%)
Nick Lodolo is a perfect dinger target today.
He's allowed six homers across 16+ innings since returning from the IL as he adjusts to a new curveball grip because of a recurring blister issue.
His 3.31 HR/9 in Aug. is the fifth-worst mark among starters for the month, and his 8.29 xERA might be a sign that he hasn't simply been unlucky of late.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the best right-handed hitter in this San Diego lineup and benefits from a great HR park, with temperatures reaching 91 degrees today.
The Padres outfielder has a .961 OPS against lefties, while his .588 slugging percentage against them ranks among the Top 10 marks in baseball this year.
I'll play this to 27% tonight and think the Padres can stack some runs in a great setting against a pitcher struggling to find his game after the blister issue.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Padres.TV
- HR picks: 33-168, -14.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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