It has been two profitable weeks as I continue to try to dig myself out of an early-season home-run hole.
I've hit a dinger in five of my last six articles, and today's slate is setting up well for four-baggers and MLB player props.
The Mariners are projected to put up some crooked numbers vs. Mitch Keller and the Pirates, while nobody is swinging a better bat than Pete Crow-Armstrong, and that price vs. Kodai Senga is on the right side of expected value.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, June 23.
Best MLB home run props today
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Josh Naylor 
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Home run pick: Josh Naylor (+660)
Give a bump to the left-handed bats of the Mariners today. Generous winds are blowing out to right field at PNC Park, and the pitching matchup is working in their favor as well. Josh Naylor at +660 is the target.
Mitch Keller has allowed 4+ runs in all but one of his last seven starts, posting a 7.64 ERA over that stretch.
His fly-ball rate is lower than his career average, and his HR/FB rate is starting to normalize after some early-season months of keeping it below 10%. His SIERA and xFIP are both at five-year highs, suggesting these bad times are here to stay.
Naylor has seen Keller eight times in his career, taking him deep once while hitting .375. I love the Mariners team total Over 4.5 today, and Naylor is one of the better +EV home run props on the board with a fair price closer to +520.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+382)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks at .935, and his .500 ISO trails only Shohei Ohtani.
This is a great price in a game that could feature multiple home runs given the pitching matchup.
Kodai Senga owns the 13th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters this season, and only three qualified starters have a worse ground-ball rate. He's allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts, and this will be just his second outing after missing three weeks with a spine/arm injury.
Senga may be the biggest pitching target on the slate today, and getting a red-hot hitter at +300 or better in a plus-plus home run matchup is an easy way to make the HR card.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Marquee Sports Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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