It has been two profitable weeks as I continue to try to dig myself out of an early-season home-run hole.
I've hit a dinger in five of my last six articles, and today's slate is setting up well for four-baggers and MLB player props.
The Mariners are projected to put up some crooked numbers vs. Mitch Keller and the Pirates, while nobody is swinging a better bat than Pete Crow-Armstrong, and that price vs. Kodai Senga is on the right side of expected value.
Finally, if a Phillie bat is not on your HR card vs. Zack Littell, are you really betting on homers?
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, June 23.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Naylor |
+660 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+382 |
 Brandon Marsh |
+660 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +22933 |
Home run pick: Josh Naylor (+660)
Give a bump to the left-handed bats of the Mariners today. Generous winds are blowing out to right field at PNC Park, and the pitching matchup is working in their favor as well. Josh Naylor at +660 is the target.
Mitch Keller has allowed 4+ runs in all but one of his last seven starts, posting a 7.64 ERA over that stretch. At home, he's been even worse, allowing 18 runs in 13+ innings across his last seven starts.
His fly-ball rate is lower than his career average, and his HR/FB rate is starting to normalize after some early-season months of keeping it below 10%. His SIERA and xFIP are both at five-year highs, suggesting these bad times are here to stay.
Naylor has seen Keller eight times in his career, taking him deep once while hitting .375. I love the Mariners team total Over 4.5 today, and Naylor is one of the better +EV home run props on the board with a fair price closer to +520.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+382)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks at .935, and his .500 ISO trails only Shohei Ohtani.
This is a great price in a game that could feature multiple home runs given the pitching matchup.
Kodai Senga owns the 13th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters this season, and only three qualified starters have a worse ground-ball rate. He's allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts, and this will be just his second outing after missing three weeks with a spine/arm injury.
Senga may be the biggest pitching target on the slate today, and getting a red-hot hitter at +300 or better in a plus-plus home run matchup is an easy way to make the HR card.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Marquee Sports Network
Home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+660)
I need a left-handed bat against Zack Littell, who continues to be a gift to home run hitters.
Brandon Marsh went deep yesterday and gets another favorable matchup against Littell, who owns the 19th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters and pairs it with a poor 31% groundball rate. Only three other starters have a worse Ideal Attack Angle percentage.
Hitters square Littell up consistently, and he's coming off a start where he allowed four home runs. The left-handed bats won't be hitting straight into the wind like the righties today with the wind blowing in from left field.
Littell is also coming off a 99-pitch outing — his second-highest pitch count of the season and well above his usual workload, which sits around 80 pitches.
I love the Phillies to pile on runs today, and Marsh at +550 or better is making the HR card.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, Nationals.TV
- HR picks: 17-118, -31.25 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Josh Naylor |
Bet Now +22933 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
| Brandon Marsh |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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