No Sunday scaries for us! We have player props to cash!
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player props for Aug. 16, including why I expect Eury Perez to absolutely shove this afternoon.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Sean Burke |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +109 |
 Eury Perez |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -128 |
 Dean Kremer |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -114 |
Sean Burke Under 5.5 strikeouts (+109)
Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has been a strikeout machine over his last five outings, although most of those came against strikeout-heavy teams. Burke now draws a Detroit Tigers lineup that's been disciplined at the dish as of late.
Over their last 12 games, the Tigers are hovering around a 20% strikeout rate. On top of that, they own a 9.3% swinging-strike rate and a 26.3% chase rate.
Looking at their last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, only three hitters own a strikeout rate above 25%, while five are at 20% or lower during that stretch.
At plus money, the Under offers a ton of value. Take this down to +105.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, DSN
Eury Perez Over 6.5 strikeouts (-128)
This may be the most obvious spot for a pitcher to shove, but that does not make this writer nervous. Miami Marlins starter Eury Perez draws one of the most swing-happy teams in all of baseball in the Cincinnati Reds, who own a 25.4% strikeout rate on the year.
Across the Reds’ last 12 games, they not only own a 25.8% strikeout rate, but their lineup also features five hitters with at least a 28% strikeout rate over their last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Not a single bat in their lineup has a strikeout rate below 21% during that stretch.
Through 11 starts on the road this season, Perez owns a 30.83% strikeout rate. Over his last three starts, he's still maintained a 30% strikeout rate.
Despite the juice, this is a great spot to back the Marlins’ young arm. Take this down to -130.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, MIAM
Dean Kremer Over 2.5 earned runs (-114)
The second-worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box's current season dataset happens to be Minnesota Twins right-hander Dean Kremer, who not only has a poor rating, but also a poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, hard-contact rate, and ground-ball rate.
Kremer draws a fully elite-rated lineup with five elite-rated bats. The Philadelphia Phillies enter Sunday red-hot over their last 12 games, posting a 115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and .762 OPS.
With four of those five elite-rated hitters being left-handed, Kremer is in for a long afternoon, especially considering how poorly he has handled left-handed hitters. Against the last 60 lefties he has faced, the veteran starter owns a 6.92 ERA, 5.85 FIP, and 13.6% walk rate. Those lefties own a .335 xBA, .595 xSLG, and .225 ISO during that stretch.
The Phillies have been solid on the road as of late, so this should be a great spot to back them against a struggling arm. If the Phillies' first-five team total is available at a better price, take that if you can find it.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 402-775, -10.9u
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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