My MLB player props analysis will begin with Aaron Judge, followed by Rafael Devers and Kyle Schwarber.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, September 27.
Best MLB home run props today
Aaron Judge (+155)
Rafael Devers (+467)
Kyle Schwarber (+178)- 💲 +3919 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge continues to make his case for winning another AL MVP. While Cal Raleigh leads the Majors in homers as a catcher, Judge leads the bigs in numerous other categories, and he smacked no. 52 of the year on Friday evening. There’s reason to believe he could crack 53 today against the Baltimore Orioles.
It’s Tomoyuki Sugano on the hill for the visitors, and Judge has gone 6-for-7 lifetime against him with two homers. The New York Yankees slugger has four bombs across his last six contests, and he’s taken right-handed pitchers deep 36 times in 2025.
Also, Judge always performs at home, with 25 round-trippers at Yankee Stadium. Sugano has allowed 30 home runs in just 29 starts, too.
HR Prop #2: Rafael Devers
The San Francisco Giants are officially eliminated from playoff contention, which is disappointing. But Rafael Devers is giving them reason to be optimistic. He’s on the doorstep of hitting 35 home runs, leaving the yard for the 34th time on Wednesday versus the St. Louis Cardinals.
Although Devers is hitting under .200 in September, he’s slugged six home runs, hitting three of them in his last six appearances. He’ll be liking today’s matchup as well. The Colorado Rockies send southpaw Kyle Freeland to the hill. Devers is 2-for-4 lifetime, and both of those hits are long balls.
A lefty-lefty matchup doesn’t always benefit a hitter, but Devers has enjoyed success against left-handed pitchers, leaving the ballpark nine times. Freeland is having a brutal campaign with a 5.00 ERA, and he’s given up 21 HRs in 30 starts.
HR Prop #3: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is still one of the most potent hitters in the sport, and he’s shown just that this season. The Philadelphia Phillies superstar sits on 56 home runs. He’s gone deep seven times in September alone, and three times in his last four. That includes a two-homer game on Wednesday against the Miami Marlins.
Today, the Phils face Mick Abel, who they traded to the Minnesota Twins at the deadline. One of their former top prospects, Abel has never faced Philadelphia, or Schwarber for that matter. But, he has a 7.36 ERA and has surrendered eight homers in nine outings.
Schwarber is a beast at home, smacking 33 bombs off righties, and has the same number of homers at Citizens Bank Park as well.
Today’s HR parlay
Aaron Judges
Rafael Devers
Kyle Schwarber
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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