It’s only a three-game slate tonight, but I’ve found some home run value. My MLB player props analysis will include Nolan Arenado, Matt Olson, and Rafael Devers.
Best MLB home run props today
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Arenado to hit a home run (+890) -
Olson to hit a home run (+438) -
Devers to hit a home run (+433) - 💲 +24648 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Nolan Arenado to hit a home run
Nolan Arenado is certainly having a down year when it comes to power. He’s only clubbed 10 home runs for the St. Louis Cardinals, but there’s reason to believe he could hit No. 11 tonight. He’ll face Justin Verlander, whom he's 4-for-13 against in his career with one long ball.
Arenado had a nice weekend, collecting three hits across two games, including a double. Although his average against righties is poor compared to lefties, nearly all of Arenado’s power is against right-handed hurlers. He’s gone deep eight times.
Verlander has trouble with the homer at home, giving up nine in 15 outings compared to four on the road.
HR Prop #2: Matt Olson to hit a home run
Matt Olson is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He’s batting .357 in September and .400 across the last week. The slugger has seven home runs this month, and he’s gone deep 28 times overall. Perhaps not the power numbers we’ve seen from him in the past, but he still has serious pop in his bat.
Olson has left the yard five times in his last nine contests, and he’ll be looking forward to tonight’s matchup. It’s lefty MacKenzie Gore on the hill for the Washington Nationals. Although he hasn’t taken him deep before, Olson is 5-for-20, and three of those hits were doubles.
The slugger is batting .290 against left-handed pitchers with six homers this season as well.
HR Prop #3: Rafael Devers to hit a home run
Rafael Devers had a slow start to his San Francisco Giants career, but he’s begun to show exactly why they pulled off a blockbuster trade for him. The veteran is now up to 32 home runs on the year while hitting .251. He’s batting .261 at home with 17 round-trippers.
He’ll be up against Michael McGreevy tonight, who takes the hill for the Cards. Devers is 2-for-3 lifetime against him with one home run. McGreevy has allowed six of his eight bombs to left-handed hitters like Devers.
Today’s HR parlay
Nolan Arenado to hit a home run
Matt Olson to hit a home run
Rafael Devers to hit a home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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