Today’s MLB player props analysis will highlight the chances of Manny Machado going deep on Monday, August 11.
My home run picks also focus on Corey Seager and Aaron Judge.
Best MLB home run props today
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Seager (+300) -
Machado (+600) -
Judge (+165) - 💲 +7320 parlay💲
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HR picks for August 11
Corey Seager (+300 at DraftKings)
Corey Seager’s last couple of months have been much better offensively, and although his home run numbers aren’t great with just 17 bombs, he’s always capable of leaving the yard.
The veteran is hot at the moment, collecting six hits across his last four games. One of those hits was a round-tripper.
He’s gone deep twice in August so far, and will be liking tonight’s matchup.
Seager faces Arizona Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson. He’s 2-for-4 lifetime against him with a homer.
Seager has nine long balls off right-handed hurlers and nine bombs at home as well.
Nelson has allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, and he’s surrendered eight of his 11 round-trippers on the road.
Manny Machado (+600 at DraftKings)
The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants begin a crucial NL West series tonight. Manny Machado will be relied upon to create offense for the Padres, and he’s been quite consistent in 2025, batting .297 with 20 homers and 72 RBI.
Machado is up against the dominant Logan Webb, but he hasn’t been so dominant versus Machado. Machado is 13-for-39 lifetime with one homer in this matchup. He also has 10 bombs off righties and 10 homers on the road.
He’s yet to go deep in August, but there’s a track record of success here. Machado is also batting .417 overall against the Giants this season with a tater.
Aaron Judge (+165 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge just returned from the IL recently and he’s struggled a bit offensively, hitting .200. Judge is stuck on 37 home runs, but tonight could be the perfect opportunity to make that 38.
The Yankees take on the Twins, who send rookie Zebby Matthews to the hill. He’s never faced the Bombers before, but Matthews has a 5.17 ERA and has allowed four home runs in only eight starts.
Judge has smacked 26 long balls off right-handed hurlers. Matthews is far from consistent and tends to struggle with his command. One mistake from the youngster and Judge could make him pay. It’s only a matter of time until he finds his power stroke again.
Today’s HR parlay
Corey Seager home run
Manny Machado home run
Aaron Judge home run
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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