With Josh off, I'm pinch-hitting with a trio of MLB home run predictions on Monday, June 8.
It's a lighter slate, with only eight games on the schedule, but sometimes it's better not to have an overabundance of options for our MLB player props.
My MLB home run predictions kick things off with Adley Rutschman popping the Emerson Hancock bubble, while Rafael Devers conquers Oracle Park thanks to a little help from Miles Mikolas.
Best MLB home run props today
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Adley Rutschman
Rafael Devers
Home run pick: Adley Rutschman (+598)
I like fading Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock today and in perpetuity. The hurler has seemingly made strides, but his increased strikeout rate and suppressed ERA are teetering on the edge of collapse.
His 4.17 expected ERA gives us the first sign of trouble. Meanwhile, contact metrics all favor his opponents, as his chase, barrel, and hard-hit rates all rank in the 20th percentile or worse. He lives in the zone and has gotten by with his mediocre stuff getting hit right at defenders and a 25.8% strikeout rate that defies his actual swing-and-miss numbers.
The question becomes which Baltimore Orioles bat to target. Pete Alonso is the most logical, but he also has the shortest number. BallparkPal has winds blowing to left field, so his +391 price tag may well be worth it anyway. Instead, I'll grab resurgent catcher Adley Rutschman as he continues to prove that he's more than Matt Wieters 2.0.
Rutschman has made incredible gains under the hood year over year, ranking among the elite in many Statcast metrics. And while he'll step in as a lefty against Hancock, the wind to left field doesn't scare me, as he's sprayed his power over the field.
The 28-year-old also ranks second on the O's in BlastContact% at 17.7% (min. 200 PAs), trailing only — you guessed it — Alonso.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, MASN
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+416)
Oracle Park is not the most homer-happy ballpark, but Washington Nationals starter Miles Mikolas has allowed 14 long balls in 56 1/3 innings, and the bullpen boasts the fifth-worst HR/9 among all MLB relief units.
For as good as the offense has been, the pitching staff has been equally terrible.
Rafael Devers paces the San Francisco Giants in BlastContact% (17.4%), and ranks in the 88th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
His fly ball metrics are generally in line with his career numbers, if not a touch better than his time in Boston. At +416, he's worth a sprinkle in a super favorable matchup, and I'd play it down to +375.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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