The Cleveland Guardians struck first in their three-game series with the Minnesota Twins, winning 7-6 on Friday. Now the two teams move on to Game 2 on Saturday.
It might be time to panic for Minnesota. With the loss on Friday, it fell to third place, and is now behind Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. It sends Chris Archer to the mound to try and break out of this slump where it has lost seven of its last nine games.
Can Minny rebound or will Cleveland pad its lead in the American League Central? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Twins on September 10.
Guardians vs Twins best odds
Guardians vs Twins picks and predictions
Cleveland rookie Oscar Gonzalez is on a tear as of late. The 24-year-old right fielder has had two or more hits in three of his last five games and is a big reason why the Guardians are atop the American League Central standings.
In Friday’s first game against the Minnesota Twins, Gonzalez had the best night of his young career. He went 4-for-5, including two home runs and five RBI in the team’s 7-6 victory over the Twins.
Before Friday’s game, Gonzalez had two hits the night before against the Kansas City Royals. On Monday, he had two hits, including a game-winning double to beat Kansas City.
It is something teammate Tyler Freeman had predicted all along.
“I have played with [Gonzalez] at almost every level and he has always had that strength,” shortstop Tyler Freeman said. “Look at him now.”
Now Gonzalez has a chance to exploit struggling pitcher Chris Archer in the second game of the three-game series. Archer has given up three or more hits in five of his last six games.
Gonzalez has never faced Archer but seems to have favorable trends. He is batting .307 against right-handers and five of his seven home runs have come against them. His average is nearly identical in home (.298) and away (.295) games.
He is also more productive at night than during day games. At night his average is .311 compared to .272 during the day. He has 50 hits and 23 RBI at night, compared to 25 hits and eight RBI during the day.
With the current streakiness of Gonzalez and the struggles of Archer, I am going to ride this wave and hope it continues. At +260 to get two hits, I love the odds as well.
My best bet: Oscar Gonzalez 2+ hits (+260 at FanDuel)
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Guardians vs Twins betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
Neither the Guardians nor Twins looked impressive last night. Cleveland jumped out to a 7-0 lead and then almost blew it, holding on to win 7-6. It improved its record over Minnesota to 7-5 this season.
Saturday night it has another chance to drive the Twins further down the AL Central standings. The Guardians are sending out right-hander Triston McKenzie to try and make it two in a row for Cleveland.
McKenzie has faced the Twins three times this season. His last two starts against them were in June and did not go well — allowing 13 runs on 17 hits in 10 1-3 innings — though the team did win one of those games after he left.
His other start against Minnesota was back in May and he allowed three runs on three hits including two home runs.
His counterpart, Chris Archer, has not been pitching any better. In his last 10 games, he has had four losses and six no decisions. You have to go all the back to June 25 for Archer to get a win.
The Guardians are favored to win at -120, while the Twins are getting +110 odds. I don’t like either one, but am going to go with Minnesota and the plus money.
Over/Under analysis
Both starting pitchers are prone to give up runs and with the total at 7.5, I like the Over. Last night’s game was 7-6, easily hitting the Over. I don’t think it will be that easy, but I do think McKenzie and Archer will be near their ERAs.
McKenzie is at 3.18 ERA on the season, but he has had trouble with the Twins in the past. In two games a week apart in June, he surrendered 13 runs in just 10 1-3 innings. His other outing against Minnesota came in May and he gave up three runs in seven innings.
Archer has only faced Cleveland once this year. In that June 30 game, he pitched well, allowing only one run in four innings.
It is the rest of his body of work that is troubling, especially recently. In his last three games, he has allowed 11 runs in 13 1-3 innings.
The Twins are definitely trending the Over. The Over is 4-0 in their last four games and is 4-1 in their last five games following a loss.
I like both pitchers to struggle and hand out runs. The Over could hit before the fifth inning.
Guardians vs Twins game info
• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Starting pitchers
Triston McKenzie (9-11, 3.18 ERA): McKenzie has been solid this season for the Guardians. The 25-year-old right-hander has not allowed more than three runs in his last six starts. In his last outing, he allowed two earned runs on three hits in 5 2-3 innings. He has chewed up innings for the Guardians, going five or more in his last 13 starts. Five of those he lasted seven or more.
Chris Archer (2-7, 4.47 ERA): The 33-year-old has not produced as expected this season. The former two-time All-Star with the Tampa Bay Rays has struggled this season. Now the Twins need him and largely he has disappeared. He hasn’t had a win since June 25 and his ERA for July was 11.74. He hasn’t had a start go past five innings in his last 10 starts. He has given up four or more runs in two of his last three starts.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Guardians are 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins
