Giants vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: New York Keeps San Francisco in Check

The New York Yankees couldn’t have written a better opening day script than their 5-0 win over the San Francisco Giants — and the teams go at it again this afternoon in the Bronx.

It’s a new season, with new rules, but the same old Aaron Judge for New York. Fresh off his record-breaking 62-homer season, Judge smashed the first long ball of the season on Thursday and the hosts never looked like surrendering that lead behind Gerrit Cole’s 11-strikeout performance.

The Giants were a .500 ballclub last year and the early signs weren’t promising on Thursday, with the offense managing just four hits against Cole in the season opener. The visitors will hope to bounce back with veteran Alex Cobb on the mound this afternoon. 

Get the lowdown on this matchup with our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Yankees on April 1. 

Giants vs Yankees odds

Giants vs Yankees predictions

With their starting rotation dropping like flies over the past few weeks, the Yankees are somehow in “next man up” mode in the opening week of the season, as Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas begin the year in the treatment room.

However, that opens the door for other pitchers to shine in New York, and I expect right-hander Clarke Schmidt to take advantage of the opportunity here. Schmidt appeared in 29 games for the Bronx Bombers in 2022, going 5-5 with 56 strikeouts over 57.2 innings and holding right-handed hitters to a .192 average.

The 27-year-old could make a real leap this year in a bigger role, and he has seemingly already benefitted from Cole’s mentorship.

“He’s got a high-revving engine and he’s just gonna sit at 9,000 RPM until you take the keys away,” as Cole put it during Spring Training.

The Giants didn’t offer much of a threat on Thursday and it’s fair to question whether the visitors can hit their way back into the game if the Yankees grab a multi-run lead. With plenty of power up and down the New York lineup, I like these odds for Schmidt to get enough run support to edge the first five innings of this contest.

My best bet: Yankees -0.5 first five innings (+102 at FanDuel)

Giants vs Yankees moneyline analysis

The Yankees flexed their muscles in the series opener and they’re -135 favorites to repeat the trick here, even with the reshuffled rotation pushing Schmidt into an unfamiliar No. 2 role. New York has won the past five meetings between these teams, and while the Giants have the experience edge in the pitching clash, the hosts have a clear power advantage at the plate.

It helps that Alex Cobb is no stranger to the Yankees after he spent almost a decade in the AL East with both the Rays and Orioles. A solid starter at home last season, Cobb’s ERA ballooned to 5.20 on the road.

Judge grabbed the headlines with his blast at the bottom of the first inning on Thursday, but six other New York batters finished with a hit in a well-balanced outing. The ceiling for this Giants offense feels much lower, especially with Mitch Haniger being placed on the 10-Day IL.

Giants vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

New York outhit the visitors 8-4 on Thursday as Cole held the San Francisco offense in check, allowing three hits through his six innings of work. It’s hard to imagine the Giants’ bats being silenced to that extent again here, but the visitors have lost a lot of the power that sparked their surprise 107-win run in 2021.

By contrast, the heart of this Yankees line-up is packed with proven home-run hitters, and navigating the trio of Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton will be a big ask for Cobb. They can paper over any early nerves for Schmidt.

Even so, the 8.5-run line feels a little high, despite the Yankees boasting a line-up packed with home run threats. The numbers back that up as the Under has hit in the last 10 meetings between these teams in New York.

Giants vs Yankees game info

Giants vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alex Cobb (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Cobb had a 7-8 record over 28 appearances in 2022. Relying heavily on a split-finger fastball and a sinker, he fared similarly against righties and lefties last season and allowed an overall .262 batting average.

Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 0.00 ERA): This is a step up for Schmidt after a more limited role last year. Left-handers hit .268 against him in 2022 and that will make for some tricky matchups here against Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson.

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Yankee Stadium hasn’t been kind to the Giants on recent visits, as they’re 2-6 in their last eight trips to the Bronx. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Yankees

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