With the MLB trade deadline officially in the rearview mirror, we're back on a full slate of action with MLB expert picks on Tuesday, Aug. 4.
Analyst Jon Metler headlines the day with a compelling fade of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Tarik Skubal's debut with his new club.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: CHC ML |
+194 |
 Joe Osborne: BOS ML |
-131 |
 Jason Wilson: STL ML |
+178 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 34¢ (+194) at Polymarket
Everyone knew this would happen when Tarik Skubal joined the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Pairing a back-to-back Cy Young winner with baseball's best lineup was always going to inflate the market, but this is about finding the best price, not perception.
The Dodgers are overvalued because of Skubal's arrival, creating an opportunity to fade them. I expect that to become a recurring theme for the rest of the regular season.
The Chicago Cubs are projected to start seven right-handed hitters, giving Skubal competitive at-bats from top to bottom. Even the bottom of the order, with hitters like Ian Happ, Tyrone Taylor, and Dansby Swanson, should force long counts and elevate his pitch count.
The Cubs are trading as a 34-cent underdog, but I make them closer to a 41-cent underdog, which is why I'm backing Chicago as massive home underdogs.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 56¢ (-131) at Polymarket
The Boston Red Sox are in a great spot to continue their 14-3 post-All-Star break tear.
Patrick Sandoval has been respectable for Boston, posting a 3.32 ERA through four outings, with the Red Sox winning all four games. He now faces a Chicago White Sox lineup that's been one of the league's worst against left-handed pitching lately.
Boston’s bullpen has also been brilliant, leading MLB in ERA and FIP over the past two weeks, and should be well rested after yesterday’s day off.
Meanwhile, Chicago right-hander Davis Martin has hit a serious skid, posting a 6.00 ERA in five July starts, including allowing five ERs in a loss to Boston.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, NESN
Jason Wilson's expert pick: Cardinals moneyline
Price: 36¢ (+178) at Polymarket
This is a bit of a lean, but the value on the St. Louis Cardinals is too good to pass up.
New York Yankees left-hander Ryan Weathers has been fine. His 3.99 ERA is certainly respectable, but his peripherals do not inspire much confidence, even against a Cardinals lineup that has looked fairly anemic aside from last night's explosion.
Weathers generates a fair amount of swing-and-miss (73rd-percentile strikeout rate), but he always seems to get squared up at some point by opposing offenses, as evidenced by his 25th-percentile barrel rate and 23rd-percentile hard-hit rate.
The Cardinals have been somewhat middling against left-handers, overall, but Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera have thrived in the split. Even if Walker has cooled a bit lately, he owns a 153 wRC+ vs. lefties, which is not only the best on the team but a Top-15 mark across MLB (min. 100 plate appearances).
St. Louis starter Hunter Dobbins isn't a dominant hurler. However, he keeps the ball on the ground relatively well (45.5% ground-ball rate), and he can navigate a depleted Yankees lineup well enough to give the Cardinals a chance to win at significant plus money.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Cardinals.TV, YES
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| DET ML | +115 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Mariners predictions | |
| BOS/CHW u8.5 | +109 |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Red Sox predictions | |
| LAD/CHC u8.5 | +100 |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Cubs predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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