Happy Monday!
With a shortened slate to kick off the week, our MLB expert picks have isolated a trio of predictions worth your attention, headlined by the Chicago White Sox as moneyline underdogs against the crosstown Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
That, and more, in our MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 17.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: CHW ML |
+150 |
 Dustin Saracini: ATL ML |
-117 |
 Jason Wilson: A's/KC u8.5 |
+117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 40¢ (+150) at Polymarket
In baseball, I'm a fan of targeting streaks rather than going against them, and the Chicago White Sox are carrying plenty of momentum into this series against the Chicago Cubs after sweeping the Tigers on the road to maintain their division lead.
Shota Imanaga gets the start for the Cubs, and he relies heavily on a top-of-the-zone fastball with high induced vertical break, a combination that can generate whiffs and pop-ups.
The White Sox have a strong counter, as they'll likely stack seven right-handed bats, several of whom have flatter swing paths designed to match the plane of Imanaga's fastball.
For visual evidence, look at the fastball Miguel Vargas launched into the seats against Jacob Waguespack on Sunday, even though the pitch was well above the zone.
Miguel Vargas adds some insurance for the @WhiteSox in the 9th! pic.twitter.com/ntPu2d4tu5
— MLB (@MLB) August 16, 2026
The White Sox are trading at 40 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 44 cents, which is why I'm hitting the button.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, Marquee
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
We're riding with one of the best teams in baseball in what looks like a misprice.
The Atlanta Braves have won 13 of their last 20 games and are starting one of the hottest pitchers in baseball post-All-Star break. Martin Perez is not only rocking one of the lowest barrel rates of his career, but he owns a 1.00 WHIP, 1.08 ERA, and is holding teams to a .479 OPS over his last five starts. Not bad.
On the other side, Bailey Ober has hit a rough patch, allowing 10 earned runs (and four home runs) over his last three starts (18 innings) with the Minnesota Twins.
I love the value we're seeing at Polymarket, and will play this up to 60 cents.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVsn, Twins.TV
Jason Wilson's expert pick: A's vs. Royals Under 8.5
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
The A's are so injured.
Tyler Soderstrom is the latest member of the usual starting nine to hit the shelf, joining Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and erstwhile MVP candidate Nick Kurtz on the injured list. So while Zack Gelof has played well, he doesn't have much support. Even if Lawrence Butler is swinging the bat better than he has all season, it's not enough.
For one, Kauffman Stadium isn't Sutter Health Park, so runs won't be coming as freely. Two, the wind is expected to be blowing in toward home plate from right field, so even if it's a relatively warm evening, the ball won't be screaming into the stands. Three, Kansas City Royals right-hander Michael Wacha has limited damage throughout the year and won't get burned by bad weather.
The Royals, by and large, are one of baseball's worst offenses. Even with Bobby Witt Jr., K.C. has scored the third-fewest runs in MLB over the last 30 days.
The total is too high, and I'd play the Under 8.5 to 55 cents.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports California, Royals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| DET ML | -116 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Pirates predictions | |
| BAL ML | +140 |
| Read analysis in our Orioles vs. Rays predictions | |
| LAD/COL o10.5 | -107 |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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