The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are two teams trending in opposite directions at the moment and when this four-game series is said and done it might be the Diamondbacks who jump two spots in the National League West standings to overtake the Padres in second place.
Coming off of four straight losses, San Diego will roll the dice with Randy Vasquez, who’s filling in for a severely injured starting rotation, against the struggling Slade Cecconi who will be hoping to deliver the visitors a fifth win in six games.
Who gets the better of this one in our Diamondbacks vs Padres predictions? Let's dive right into our MLB picks for Thursday, June 6.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks moneyline (+107 at BetRivers)
My analysis
There might be some redeeming qualities to Slade Cecconi despite a pretty poor start to his big-league career. He’s made 10 starts and 14 total appearances, posting a 5.06 ERA across 64 frames, but this season he’s found a way to pitch to contact at a much better rate than in his first taste of the majors.
Cecconi’s embraced being a fly ball-oriented pitcher, using the pitcher-friendly Chase Field to his benefit and posting a .220 Expected Batting Average through seven outings with some continued excellence in the walk department. He’s brought his hard-hit rate down to right around the league average after sitting 11 points higher than the norm last year, and while there have been some barrels that have led to a high Expected Slugging it’s not going to hurt you too much in Arizona, or in San Diego as it were given its below-average Park Factor for homers over the years.
Randy Vasquez, meanwhile, has profiled somewhat similarly with a stellar walk rate and few hard-hit balls as a contact-oriented pitcher. He’s opted for more ground balls than his counterpart, but it’s really been line drives that he’s given up more than most – and that’s why he owns one of the worst xBA marks around at .316.
The thing here is that the Padres have begun to trend back down in wRC+ over the last week or so, and the Diamondbacks are just outside the bottom third of the league in that category over the last 14 days. Its biggest issue has been strikeouts, while San Diego has lacked any power to speak of. Yes, the Padres are hitting an acceptable .247 against ground-ballers this year, but their slugging, as you might expect in that matchup, has lagged behind, and with no power this team can only hurt you so much.
I trust Cecconi to pitch to contact a lot better than Vasquez despite the fact that it’s been the Padres who have technically displayed more at the plate lately, and on the flip side a meeting with a pitcher in Vasquez who has trouble racking up strikeouts should be what Arizona needs to stay hot and make a move in the division.
Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks moneyline
Ketel Marte 2+ total bases
Jurickson Profar to record a hit
It’s hard to get any pitching props into this one given strikeouts will be at a premium and it’s anyone’s guess how long two struggling starters stick around in this one, so I’ll turn to one hitter per team to boost the odds of this one a bit.
Starting on the Arizona side of things, Ketel Marte has turned into someone we can really trust to bring his bat to each and every game and has the benefit of hitting high in the order to give us a whole host of chances at success here. He’s ranked third among all hitters in total bases versus finesse pitchers, hitting .348 in the split, and should have a wonderful time hitting against Vasquez with his inability to successfully get outs on contact.
Then I’ll opt for Jurickson Profar who, while not quite as hot as Marte, has hit .323 this season and has four hits in his last four games. He’s sporting a .286 average against fly-ball pitchers and has been a hit machine since the middle of May with a .321 average over his last 24 contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-190) | San Diego -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Arizona +107 | San Diego -116
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Diamondbacks vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks opened up close to +110 on the moneyline and have seen some steady action as the day has worn on Thursday, moving close to even money to win.
- The total sits at its opening number of 8.5, and despite a very brief move down to eight runs, the movement has been slightly towards the Over with a marginal increase in price.
- According to DraftKings, 40% of the bets and 44% of the moneyline handle is on the Diamondbacks.
- The Over has been a favorite of bettors, commanding 69% of the tickets on the total and a firm 81% of the cash.
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Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Diamondbacks vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SDPA |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Slade Cecconi (1-4, 5.60 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (1-3, 5.74 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
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