Relief pitcher Jorge Lopez may have called the New York Mets the “worst f---ing team” in baseball following another loss that included him chucking his glove into the stands. Whether he did or not doesn’t change the fact the Mets have lost eight of their last nine games and now must deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks and ace Zac Gallen on Thursday night.
But the D-backs have also struggled to score, which makes the Under an obvious target in my Diamondbacks vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for tonight’s matchup.
Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The funny thing about Lopez’s quote isn’t what he potentially said, it’s that it had us all asking the question, “are the New York Mets the worst team in baseball?”
Statistically, the answer is no, because of the existence of teams like the Chicago White Sox. But after losing eight of their last nine games, the Mets are closer to that dubious distinction than they would like to admit.
Tonight, they’ll have to put that behind them and focus on the task at hand, and it’s a difficult one as Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks come to town.
Gallen is having another solid season for the D-backs with a 3.90 expected ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. Those numbers don’t blow you away but they should be plenty in this matchup.
The 28-year-old right-hander will face off against a Mets team that ranks 24th in batting average, 22nd in OPS, and 17th in wRC+. They have also scored three runs or fewer six times during this ugly nine-game stretch.
Plus, Gallen has also been a problem for the Amazins. Current Mets hitters have a combined .222 expected batting average and a. 350 xSLG vs. Gallen.
New York counters Gallen with prospect Christian Scott. The 24-year-old right-hander has been impressive in his first four career starts, pitching to a 3.31 xERA.
The Mets aren’t the only team in this matchup with an underperforming offense. The Diamondbacks have not produced the way you would expect this veteran lineup to, particularly against right-handers. Arizona ranks 24th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in wRC+ vs. righties this season. The D-backs have scored just six runs over their last five games combined.
That has me thinking we will see another low-scoring game in Queens tonight, which means I’m on the Under 7.
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Diamondbacks vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Zac Gallen to record a win
Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI
First, let’s start this same-game parlay by bumping the Under up to 7.5 just in case we lose a leg to a push.
Second, while I think this will be a low-scoring matchup, I’m still going to side with the Diamondbacks here. Both teams are struggling at the dish, but Arizona has a sizeable edge in starting pitching.
But instead of taking them -125 on the moneyline, let’s go with Gallen to record the win at +165. It feels like the morale of this New York team is uber-low at the moment and I like the D-backs to take advantage of that.
And let’s close this SGP out with Christian Walker to fuel that win by driving in a run. The D-backs first baseman is swinging a hot stick with hits in seven straight games, including two home runs and three doubles. That’s good for a .357 batting average and a 1.079 OPS.
He’s also been one of the best run producers for Arizona this season with 33 RBIs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Mets odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets live odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-230) | New York -1.5 (+190)
- Moneyline: Arizona -110 | New York -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Diamondbacks vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This National League matchup opened as a coin flip but it's the D-backs who have seen the early money, moving the line as high as Arizona -125.
- Both the D-backs and Mets are struggling heading into this matchup. Arizona has lost four of five while New York has dropped eight of nine.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 but early bettors were quick to jump on the Under, moving the number down to 7.
- The D-backs have cashed the Under in six consecutive games, while the Mets have gone Under in three of four.
Diamondbacks vs Mets trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the Under in 26 of their last 44 games for +8.60 Units and a 18% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mets
Diamondbacks vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SNY |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (5-4, 3.12 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Christian Scott (0-2, 3.97 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Mets latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Mets weather
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