The Cincinnati Reds rolled the Chicago Cubs 7-0 in the series opener between the NL Central rivals Monday, and the two clubs hit Great American Ball Park for Game 2 tonight.
Chicago will have lefty Justin Steele toeing the rubber, and the 2023 All-Star has had consecutive ho-hum starts out of the 2024 break. Our Cubs vs. Reds predictions and MLB picks are calling for the mediocre results to continue for the southpaw Tuesday.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs recorded (+132 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele was cruising along a nine-game heater leading into the All-Star break with a 1.48 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He held opposing hitters to an unsustainably low .233 BABIP and his 3.44 xFIP was considerably higher than the highlighted ERA.
As noted, things haven’t gone as smoothly out of the break, with the Chicago southpaw sporting a 6.30 ERA, WHIP, and 4.60 xFIP across his past two starts. Opposing hitters have also been incredibly fortunate with an unsustainably high .455 BABIP.
I’m anticipating Steele to settle in the middle Tuesday, with the Cincinnati Reds also eyeing some statistical correction to their 23rd-ranked .284 BABIP against left-handed pitchers this season. Additionally, Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, and the Reds have a .312 wOBA at home compared to a .297 mark on the highway.
It’s also notable that Cincy has the luxury of trotting out an entire lineup of righty bats to give them the handedness advantage against Steele. Right-handed bats have far more success against the lefty with a .281 wOBA, while left-handed hitters sport a far lower .201 mark.
I also value the market moving to this Under, and this being a five-star recommendation from our MLB prop projections. The prop-projection insights highlight umpire James Hoye's grading as hitter-friendly and the weather forecast being favorable for offense.
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Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Over 8.5
Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs
The Reds haven’t officially announced a starting pitcher for tonight after trading projected starter Frankie Montas to the Brewers on Monday, and even with Steele’s recent hiccups, he’s still sporting high-end numbers with a seventh-ranked 3.07 ERA and 13th-ranked 3.47 xFIP among the 91 pitchers with 200+ innings over the past two years.
I expect both offenses to have success with the discussed favorable hitting setup, and the market has been moving to the Over 9 across the board. I expect Steele to have a sound outing, just not a long one in the heat and on the road Tuesday night.
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Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+120) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Chicago -130 | Cincinnati +110
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- This game has been pulled off the board at multiple shops as of Tuesday morning following a move in the Chicago direction.
- The line movement aligns with Steele being one of the best arms in the NL dating back to last season, and the uncertainty of who will start for Cincinnati.
- As noted, this 9-run total has seen action on the Over through bet365, with the opening 9 (+105/-125) moving to a -115/-105 split.
Cubs vs Reds trend
Justin Steele has only recorded 30 outs across his past two starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds.
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, Bally Sports Ohio |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (2-4, 3.08 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | TBD |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
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