Cubs vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

After a disheartening series loss in San Diego, the Chicago Cubs will look to rebound when they travel north for a weekend series with the Seattle Mariners.

Can Jordan Wicks act as the stopper for the Cubs, or will the hard times continue against Bryce Miller and the Mariners?

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth Cubs vs. Mariners predictions and free MLB picks on Friday, April 12.

Cubs vs Mariners prediction

My best bet
Cubs moneyline (+110 at Caesars)

My analysis
The series loss in San Diego was an utterly bizarre one for the Chicago Cubs, who were on track to take the first of three in commanding fashion before Javier Assad and Jose Cuas helped blow an 8-0 lead and, in turn, the game. Things picked up the next night with the offense coming out strong again, but Kyle Hendricks never stood much of a chance in the rubber game with a weak bullpen behind him.

The Cubs did manage to continue hitting for the majority of that series and find themselves ranked 10th in wRC+ with one of the highest walk rates in baseball and a low 20.6% strikeout rate. They remain fifth in expected batting average and second in expected slugging, so it does seem for all the world that this is an utterly complete offense. It’s early, but this team is loaded with talent and did hit a ton in the second half of last season.

We can’t really say the same for the Seattle Mariners who, despite what their front office will tell us, continue to be infatuated with Three True Outcome players. There are a couple of issues with this – first, they play in one of the least-friendly home run parks in baseball, and second they’re fifth-worst in walk rate. So, they’re only covering two of the Three True Outcomes to this point and their strikeout rate really could not be much worse at a league-high 29.2%.

On top of this, the Mariners are just 26th in fly ball rate – so even when the ball is coming back in play this power-heavy lineup isn’t doing much damage. Jordan Wicks should be licking his chops in this one, considering he’s been done in by too many fly balls to this point in the season, and given he was a solid ground ball pitcher last year between Triple-A and the bigs

I’d bet on him rolling some up here against a team that can’t get the ball in the air.

Wicks has also boasted an excellent 30.2% strikeout rate through two starts, which puts him in that elite tier, and while walks have been something of an issue the Mariners are free-swinging and should profile excellently for the lefty.

On the other side of the coin, Bryce Miller has been a rather mediocre pitcher around his rather high 27.7% strikeout rate. The Cubs are incredibly disciplined and should get the ball back in play which is not exactly what you want to hear when you’ve got a guy with a career .408 xwOBA on contact pitching to a team that does damage when they hit the ball.

I like the Cubs a lot in this one, and think the market remains unfairly skeptical towards them.

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Cubs vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

Cubs moneyline

Jordan Wicks Over 5.5 strikeouts

Mike Tauchman to record a hit

+427 at DraftKings

We talked a lot about strikeouts above, so let’s bet on some. I like Wicks to remain strong in this area against the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball at nearly 30% after punching out 13 in his first two starts across 8 2/3 innings. That amounts to a stunning 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and while that number is due to regress a bit he did manage to fan more than 10 per nine prior to reaching Triple-A, where he produced a fine 8.18 strikeouts per nine.

I think Wicks will stick around in this one, particularly considering walks have been an issue for him and should not be against Seattle which has offered at a ton of pitches so far this season, and if he can complete six innings he should be able to comfortably hit this.

Then, I want to attack Miller – but it’s going to take some careful thought as to the best way to do this. I want a player who’s put the ball in play a ton against right-handers, but not one that’s overly ground-ball happy like Nico Hoerner considering most of the contact that Miller allows comes on line drives and fly balls.

That’s why I land on Mike Tauchman, who has a hit in his last three games and has once again sported one of the team’s lowest strikeout rates against right-handers. The two concerns here are that he draws a lot of walks and does bat ninth, but Miller has historically been a pitcher to limit walks and should cough up a hit in one of his two matchups with Tauchman.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Mariners odds

Cubs vs Mariners live odds

Cubs vs Mariners opening odds

• Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Seattle -1.5
• Moneyline: Chicago +103 | Seattle -112
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Cubs vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mariners were once again a team which came into the season with some rather high expectations, so naturally you can see some buy-in on the 5-8 home team here in the line movement. With that said, the line opened up at -125 and sits around -126 right now – though it’s been quite the journey to get here.
• There was initially a lot of money taken in on the Cubs to move this to around -120 before steady buy-back on Seattle. The line plummeted to nearly a pick ‘em early in the afternoon on Friday, but once again some bettors jumped in to correct that line and take it back to around the opener.
• In line with this, 63% of the bets at DraftKings have come in on the Cubs, but it’s the Mariners who have accounted for 61% of the handle.
• The total was initially offered at 7.5 before an instant jump to eight runs, where it’s sat for the entirety of Friday. DraftKings is reporting that 58% of the bets and 47% of the handle on the total have come in on the Over.

Cubs vs Mariners trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mariners

Cubs vs Mariners game info

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