Cubs vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Chicago Cubs have kicked a mini-funk at the dish with 5.88 runs per over their past eight games, and the North Siders pace the majors with 5.76 runs per road game while ranking first in wOBA, ISO, and OPS on the highway.

Of course, the Chicago lineup has also done damage against left-handed pitchers this season with respective ranks of seventh in wOBA, fifth in ISO, and sixth in OPS. Houston Astros southpaw Brandon Walter just served up seven earned runs across six innings to the Los Angeles Angels last time out.

Walter lacks pedigree, and he’s surrendered a healthy 44.3% hard-hit rate and 23.5% HR/FB rate. This should prove to be a favorable matchup for the Chicago lineup.

The Astros haven’t been dominant against right-handed pitchers, either. So, while Cubbies righty Cade Horton is still finding his way with a respectable 3.73 ERA and 4.16 xFIP across his eight big-league appearances, I think he can keep the Houston lineup off balance enough for the Chicago bats to do the heavy lifting.

Houston ranks 21st in wOBA, 27th in ISO, and 21st in OPS against right-handed arms, after all.

Both the Cubs and Astros have trended to the Under with Chicago playing to it in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI), and Houston going Under the number in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI).

As noted, the Astros have been below average against right-handed pitching this year, too. It’s also notable that Houston ranks second in bullpen ERA and Chicago is fifth, so there’s potential for late runs to be few and far between. 

Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki has been a force against southpaws with a monster .443 wOBA, .359 ISO, and 1.056 OPS. He’s also piled up 42 runs, 79 hits, and 67 RBI across 77 games for the season.

Plus, Suzuki is ripe for a breakout night at the dish after going 0-for-7 the past two days against the St. Louis Cardinals.