Cardinals vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Wheeler Untouchable in Philly Victory

Sunday Night Baseball makes its way to Philadelphia for Game 3 between two NL foes.

The Philadelphia Phillies look to avoid losing ground in the division sans the services of Bryce Harper, who’s expected to be out for close two months with a broken thumb. They took Game 1 by a score of 5-3.

The St. Louis Cardinals took Game 2 by a score of 7-6. They were hot early, hitting four straight home runs in the first inning. 

Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball between the Cardinals and Phillies for July 3.Cardinals vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies opened at -130 and have taken some steam. They now sit between -147 and -161 depending on the book. The total is 7.5 across most books but an 8 is available, so be sure to shop around.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cardinals vs Phillies predictions

• Prediction: Phillies ML (-147)
• Prediction: Under 8 (-115)
• Best bet: Wheeler Over 6.5 Ks (-112)

Picks made on 7/3/2022 at 10:18 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cardinals vs Phillies game info

• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Cardinals vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Adam Wainwright (6-5, 3.07 ERA): Wainwright remains an effective starting pitcher despite being 40-years-old. He got a cup of coffee during his age 23 season back in 2005 before going full-time the next year, and he has been a key figure in this organization ever since. His 3.07 ERA is excellent, but his 4.21 xERA indicated that some regression is coming. He doesn’t strike out many batters (2.03%) but does limit walks (7.0%). His 5.3% barrel rate is around league average.

Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.89 ERA): Wheeler’s record does not accurately reflect the level that he’s achieved on the mound. He’s been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his last 11 starts. For the second year in a row his ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 3.00. His barrel rate of 3.9% ranks tenth among starts with at least 200 batted ball events. It’s very hard to poke any holes in his game — he strikes batters out (28.5% K-rate) while limiting walks (5.8% BB-rate) and hard contact.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four Game 3s in a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Cardinals vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The first note in this handicap is that both teams are shorthanded at the time. Bryce Harper is the biggest absence in the Phillies lineup as he recovers from surgery on his fractured left thumb, and they’re still without the services of Jean Segura for another month. The Cardinals are without the services of two starting outfielders in Tyler O’Neil and Harrison Bader, although both have an OPS below .675 this season.

If we look at the full-season statistics, St. Louis should have an edge at the plate. The Cards rank higher in both wOBA (ninth, barely ahead of the Phillies at 10th) and wRC+ (seventh to 13th). They’ve been the hotter team lately as well, ranking above the Phillies in both categories over the last 10 days (seventh in wOBA to Philadelphia’s 10th, seventh in wRC+ to Philadelphia’s 12th).

The starting pitching edge, on the other hand, is in Philadelphia’s favor. Zack Wheeler has been one of the game’s best pitchers even though his record doesn’t display that. His 2.90 xERA and 2.53 FIP are both significantly better than Wainwright’s 4.21 xERA and 3.37 FIP.

One problem for the Phillies in recent years has been an awful bullpen, but they’ve made improvements there and have a 3.93 ERA in relief. The Cardinals have a slight edge there with a 3.64 bullpen ERA.

I believe that the biggest edge in the game is Wheeler over Wainwright. The Cards have an edge at the plate and in relief, but the numbers are close. Wheeler is a dominant starting pitcher and I’m not betting against him unless I’m getting a bigger plus number. 

The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series and are 14-4 in their last 18 games against a right-handed starter. I’m taking those trends to continue. 

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-147 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

One strong trend in favor of runs is that the Over is 7-2 in Cardinals' last nine road games against a right-handed starter. The issue with that trend? They’re facing Wheeler, one of the game’s best starters.

I’ll be looking the other way for tonight's game. Wheeler’s peripherals are all fantastic and his 3.9% barrel rate is a good indication that he can limit this Cardinals lineup. Wainwright’s peripherals aren’t as solid, but he’s managed to be an effective starting pitcher year after year and his 5.3% barrel rate is decent. He’s facing off with a short-handed Phillies lineup sans its biggest threat in Harper.

The Phillies have rebounded well after allowing runs in their previous game. The Under is 8-1 in their last nine games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.

The Under is 5-2 in the Cardinals' last seven games overall and I believe that trend will continue.

There are still a few totals listed at 8.0 across the board, but most have been moved down to 7.5. I’m going to grab 8.0 while it’s still there. Every run (or half-run!) counts.

Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I’m looking to target Wheeler almost any time he’s on the mound. He’s one of the game’s best pitchers with almost no flaws in his profile. What’s the best way of doing that in this spot?

I don’t mind playing the Phillies in the first five innings, but the price isn’t quite right for me. The moneyline is -160 and the run line -0.5 is -115, which are both a tad steep.

Instead, I’ll target Wheeler’s strikeout prop listed at 6.5. I’m taking him to go OVER that mark, something he’s done in 10 of his last 11 starts. He strikes out 10.4 batters per nine innings and faces a St. Louis lineup that has been prone to whiffing at the plate, striking out at the seventh-highest rate (24.5%) in the league over the last 10 days.

Zack Wheeler prop pick: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel)

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