The Boston Red Sox have been one of the big surprises through the early part of this 2021 MLB betting season. At 11-6, the Red Sox not only sit atop the American League East standings but have the best record in the AL.
One team looking to challenge the BoSox for that spot is the up-and-coming Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have been bit by the injury bug but put their best foot forward in Game 1 of this series as they hand the ball to ace Hyun-jin Ryu.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on Tuesday, April 20, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBoston opened -124 Monday night at FanDuel, dropped to -110, rebounded to -126, then dropped to -112, all before 1 p.m. ET today. It's two-way moneyline action with a lean toward the Red Sox, who are attracting 52 percent of tickets and 53 percent of cash. The total moved from 8 to 8.5 several times and is at 8.5 as of 1 p.m. ET, with 57 percent of tickets on the Over and 51 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBlue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Hyun-jin Ryu (1-1, 1.89 ERA): Ryu had a very strong first season with Toronto, finishing third in AL Cy Young voting and he has carried that momentum over into 2021. The lefty has allowed just four earned runs over his first three starts while pitching to an 0.89 WHIP. If there is someone who can mess up the timing of the red-hot Red Sox hitters, it’s Ryu.
Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.60 ERA): The Red Sox counter with a southpaw of their own in Rodriguez. The lefty sat out 2020 due to a heart condition and concerns around COVID-19 but he hasn’t skipped a beat in his first two starts this season. Rodriguez has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and has 12 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched. This will be his first start at Fenway Park since 2019. That season he pitched to a 3.07 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP there.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: David Phelps RP (Questionable), Cavan Biggio 3B (Questionable), Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out), George Springer CF (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Jordan Romano RP (Out), Tyler Chatwood RP (Out).
Red Sox: Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays' last five games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Boston Red Sox opened as the fourth favorite to win the American League East this season at +2,200 behind the New York Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays, and tonight’s opponent: the Toronto Blue Jays.
And while it is still very early in the season, the BoSox have ridden some red-hot bats to the best record in the AL. Boston leads the MLB in batting average and OPS and is second in scoring at 5.82 runs per game.
However, winning with just offense can be hard to sustain in Major League Baseball and if there is a guy on the Blue Jays that can slow down the Red Sox, it is Ryu. The lefty uses one of the major’s best changeups to keep hitters off balance and is hard to barrel up. As a result, he is allowing opponents to hit just .221 off him this season.
The Blue Jays in general have been battling through a multitude of injuries and are coming off dropping three of four to the Kansas City Royals. But at least their top bats — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — are almost as hot as the Red Sox’s and are hitting very well against lefties.
With the edge in starters, the Blue Jays have value as an underdog.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays (+105)
Over/Under pick
As mentioned, Ryu is dealing to start the season. He has only allowed four earned runs in three starts and two of those starts have come against the Yankees. While New York is off to a slow start, Ryu did his part to shut down that talented lineup.
He mixes his pitches and locates so well that he can make his 90 miles per hour fastball look like 95—which makes it very hard to make solid contact against him.
And while Vladdy and Bo are off to great starts for the Jr. Jays this season, the rest of the lineup isn’t pulling its weight just yet. They score a mediocre 4.31 runs per game and really struggle to get that clutch hit at times, ranking 27th in the MLB with a .192 batting average with runners in scoring position.
On the other hand, the Red Sox bats are getting a lot of pub, but they have scored four runs or fewer in five of their last eight games with the Under going 5-3 in that stretch. This number is high enough to think that will happen again.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting card
- Blue Jays (+105)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/19/2021 at 10:24 p.m. ET
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