Blue Jays vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Gausman and Wheeler Go to War

Alek Manoah struggled again and the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen couldn’t keep the game close as the Philadelphia Phillies took the opener of this mini-two-game set.

The Blue Jays will attempt to earn a series split when they take the field at Citizen’s Bank Ball Park in Philadelphia this afternoon. However, runs could be tough to come by as Kevin Gausman toes the rubber against Zack Wheeler.

Is the Under a home run in Philly today? Or will the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper have the edge? I break down the MLB odds for this interleague and give you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions Blue Jays vs. Phillies.

Blue Jays vs Phillies odds

Blue Jays vs Phillies predictions

Alek Manoah couldn’t make it through five innings last night and every time the Blue Jays made a run, the bullpen gave it all and more back. Hopefully, the Jays won’t have to rely on too many innings from their relievers as they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman.

Despite getting lit up by the Boston Red Sox last time out, Gausman is the Blue Jays’ most reliable starter. The right-hander with the devastating splitter has a 3.86 ERA this season and has arguably been better than that as evidenced by his 2.61 FIP. Gausman is also posting some of the best strikeout and walk rates of his career.

While the Phillies have one of the more dangerous lineups in baseball when everything is clicking, particularly now that Bryce Harper is back, that just hasn’t been the case through the first six weeks of the season.

Philadelphia hits for a good average but has struggled to get those hits when it matters most. The Phillies rank 17th in batting average and 25th in OPS with runners in scoring position. The fact that the Phillies rank 20th in strikeout rate doesn’t help matters.

Gausman has put up dominant outings against the New York Yankees, and Seattle Mariners, and in a lone start against the Phillies last September, he shut them out on five hits over six innings while striking out eight. 

On the other side, the Phillies counter Gausman with Zack Wheeler. The right-hander has had a little bit of an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. But he's been one of the most reliable arms in baseball over the last six seasons.

Despite a 4.26 ERA, the advanced numbers say Wheeler isn’t too far off from being that guy we’ve become used to over the last several years. His expected ERA sits at 3.56 and he's creating a ton of soft contact, ranking in the 86th percentile or better when it comes to average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.

The Blue Jays also have a tough lineup but we just saw Aaron Nola do a solid job navigating it, allowing just two runs on five hits over six innings. 

Pitching should be the story here, at least early on. But let’s eliminate the two shaky bullpens which allowed seven of last night’s 12 runs. The Under five-inning total looks like a solid play once again.

My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-115 at Sports Interaction)

Blue Jays vs Phillies moneyline analysis

This game opened as basically a coin flip with both teams on the board at -110. And it makes sense considering this is a matchup of two very similar teams.

Both teams are sending reliable and often dominant right-handers to the mound. Both teams have dangerous lineups featuring big-name superstars including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Harper, and Trea Turner. The Phillies and Blue Jays rank eighth and ninth respectively when it comes to OPS when facing right-handed pitching. And both teams have bullpens which make their fans' anxiety levels go through the roof when they enter a ball game.

I would give the Blue Jays a very slight edge here because I do believe Gausman is the better starter overall and the Phillies bullpen is objectively worse than the Jays’. That said, this is a very close matchup that I could see going either way, which is why the line is what it is. So no official play here for me.  

Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

The total for this interleague showdown hit the board at 9 and has been bet down to 8.5 as of Wednesday morning. The respect for the starters is the reason for that downward movement and while I like the first five Under, I’m staying away from the full-game total.

The Under 4.5 first five innings cashed in yesterday’s matchup, with the Phillies holding a 3-1 lead into the sixth. The starters did their job before the bullpens came in and did their best to muck it all up. The final score was 8-4 but the Blue Jays also failed to cash in on multiple bases-loaded opportunities late in the game.

This shouldn’t be shocking considering the bullpens featured in this matchup. Most notably, Philadelphia’s. The Phillies’ relievers rank 26th in ERA and opponent batting average, and 28th in WHIP. Now, the Blue Jays bullpen has been a little more reliable, but still ranks 19th in ERA, 14th in opponent average, and 12th in WHIP.  

That back-end volatility is the reason I’m staying away from the total here.

Blue Jays vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.86 ERA): Gausman gets lit up sometimes when he's finding too much of the plate with his fastball but when he is locating it, he's one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball thanks to his devastating splitter. He ranks in the Top 9% in the MLB in both strikeout and walk rate.

Zack Wheeler (3-2, 4.26 ERA): Wheeler has turned himself into one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last several years. He hasn't had an expected ERA higher than 3.86 in any season dating back to 2018. He uses an arsenal of six pitches to keep hitters off balance.

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The Under is 5-2-1 in the Phillies' last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies

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