Simply put, Baltimore Orioles starter Corbin Burnes is going to be a problem for an anemic Toronto Blue Jays offense. So, don’t be surprised if the O’s jump out to an early lead in this American League East matchup.
The MLB odds and my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions back that up as Toronto is a sizeable underdog in the opener of this three-game set at Camden Yards even with Jose Berrios taking the ball. I break it all down in my MLB picks, for Monday, May 13.
Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles -0.5 F5 run line (-115 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It felt like Saturday was a turning point for the Toronto Blue Jays season. The Jays were trailing the Minnesota Twins 7-1 before a furious comeback resulted in a 10-8 victory.
But alas, those positive vibes were short-lived as Toronto’s flailing offense returned and the Jays dropped Sunday’s finale 5-1 for their sixth straight series loss.
Things go from bad to worse as next up is a trip to Camden Yards for a three-game set against the first-place Baltimore Orioles.
After a breakout campaign in 2023, the Orioles look like they’re ready to take that next step. That’s supported by the fact that they went out and traded for what the team needed most — a bonafide ace. The O’s now have that in Corbin Burnes, who will take the ball for tonight’s series opener.
Burnes’ first season in Baltimore has gone off without a hitch. The 29-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 2.99 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .222 expected batting average and striking out a touch more than 25% of batters faced. That’s a problem for a Blue Jays team that ranks 23rd in batting average and wRC+ and 25th in OPS when facing right-handers this season.
The Blue Jays counter Burnes with Jose Berrios. The right-hander had been putting up some great numbers this season, but the advanced metrics expected regression and that came in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Berrios was rocked for eight runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings, which included a Bryce Harper grand slam. Overall, Berrios’ 4.91 xERA is much higher than his 2.85 ERA and his .272 expected batting average against sits in the 21st percentile among MLB pitchers.
That means Baltimore will be a problem. The O’s rank ninth in batting average and fifth in OPS and wRC+ vs. righties this season.
I don’t expect Berrios to be as bad as last time out, but it’s hard to see the Jays getting much going against Burnes and the O’s holding a lead through five innings looks like a good bet.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
There haven’t been a lot of positives surrounding this Blue Jays season, but one thing the fans can be excited about is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat.
The Blue Jays slugger looks like he is busting out and giving us a glimmer of hope that he can get back to the guy who finished runner-up in MVP voting back in 2021. Vladdy has hits in 12 of his last 13 games, good for a .404 batting average and a .975 OPS while driving in nine runs over that stretch.
Flowing the Jays’ pitiful two-hit performance on Sunday (Vladdy had one of them), you’d hope Blue Jays manager John Schneider would revert to the lineup that was successful on Saturday, which had Davis Schneider leading off and Guerrero hitting third, giving Vladdy more opportunities to drive in runs.
That’s a big if considering how this team has been managed, but anything else would be heavily scrutinized. Our Covers MLB Prop Projections have Vladdy at 0.6 RBIs for tonight’s game, which means there’s some value on the Over at this price.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles live odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -160 | Baltimore -1.5 +135
- Moneyline: Toronto +140 | Baltimore -165
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Blue Jays vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as sizeable underdogs and it appears bettors don't like their matchup against Corbin Burnes as Toronto is now listed in the +150 range.
- This is the first these AL East rivals have faced off this season and the Orioles dominated this matchup in 2023, winning 10 of the 13 games +35 run differential.
- The total hit the board at an even eight but some 7.5s are starting to pop up on the board as of late Monday morning.
- Thanks to a struggling offense, the Blue Jays have been a solid Under team with Berrios or Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Berrios' last start was just the second time in eight outings that has gone Over the total.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend
The Blue Jays have only covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 126 games for -28.06 Units and a -19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (4-3, 2.85 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (3-2, 2.83 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
