Blue Jays vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fanning Gausman's Heat

The Toronto Blue Jays and the St. Louis Cardinals will play the middle leg of their three-game opening series on Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium.

Both Opening Day starters — Alek Manoah and Miles Mikolas — were chased in the fourth inning in a huge game for each lineup. Toronto ultimately emerged with a 10-9 victory.

Will Game 2 starters Kevin Gausman and Jack Flaherty settle things down, or will we see more of the same in St. Louis? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Cardinals on Saturday, April 1.

Blue Jays vs Cardinals odds

Blue Jays vs Cardinals predictions

The Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman may be taking on a Cardinals lineup that just plated nine runs on Opening Day, but I’m expecting big things from him on the mound on Saturday afternoon.

Gausman enters this start off a sharp Spring Training in which he allowed no earned runs over 13 2/3 innings while striking out 18. The Colorado native got off to an excellent start last season, authoring a 2.19 ERA over 24 2/3 innings pitched in March/April, fanning 31 batters. The year before that, Gausman produced a 2.14 ERA over 33 2/3 innings in March/April, along with 34 strikeouts.

The fact that Gausman is pitching on the road today doesn’t stop me from thinking that he’ll rack up the strikeouts. If anything, it’s to his benefit.

Gausman is a rare breed in that he performs remarkably better on the road than he does at home. He pitched to a 2.30 ERA over 94 innings on the road last year with 110 strikeouts, compared to a 4.57 ERA over 80 2/3 innings at home with 95 batters fanned. 

The year before was much the same story — a 2.33 ERA on the road with 127 strikeouts over 108 1/3 frames, versus a 3.44 ERA and 100 Ks over 83 2/3 innings at home.

Based on these numbers, I believe Gausman will hang around long enough to register at least six strikeouts. The Cardinals may have been in the bottom third in strikeouts last season, but a lot of fresh faces to the everyday lineup like Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and Nolan Gorman could help Gausman add to his K total. If Willson Contreras (questionable) is unable to go today after getting drilled in the knee with a pitch on Thursday and Andrew Knizer suits up instead, that would only help the cause.

My best bet: Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-137)

Blue Jays vs Cardinals moneyline analysis

There are plenty of positives for the Blue Jays in this spot, and bettors are zeroing in on them, as Toronto’s listed at -130 at most sites after opening as consensus -123 favorites on the MLB odds board.

Not only did the Blue Jays win their opener on the road, 10-9, but they won it in style. Toronto jumped out to an early lead, and despite giving it back three times, rallied in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings to avoid a troubling loss. A five-hit day from George Springer and a four-hit performance from Bo Bichette certainly aided the cause. The Jays showed more backbone and maturity in that one game alone than they did in their entire embarrassing Wild Card round defeat to the Seattle Mariners. 

Detractors will note that the Toronto bullpen sprung some leaks, and while that’s true, there are still some positives to be taken away. Offseason acquisition Erik Swanson worked a clean inning and picked up two strikeouts, while closer Jordan Romano shut things down with a clean ninth inning and two Ks to earn the save.

Trend bettors should note that the Blue Jays are 16-5 in their last 21 games following an off day, and 24-8 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Blue Jays vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 8 runs, but most shops have either dropped it to 7.5 already, or are dangling the Over 8 at a better price to draw some action on that side.

Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty is serious wild card in this game, and the reason why neither the moneyline nor the total could be my best bet for this tilt. Flaherty has been beset by injuries since his incredible 2019 campaign, where he earned the best WHIP (0.97) in the NL. He produced a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings in 2020, before bouncing back with a 3.22 ERA over 78 1/3 innings in 2021. More injuries befell Flaherty in 2022, who authored a 4.25 ERA over only 36 frames. 

The advanced numbers paint a grimmer picture, as Flaherty had a FIP above 4.10 in each of the last three seasons. 

St. Louis fans hoping for some encouraging signs from him in Spring Training were bitterly disappointed, as he produced a 6.41 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP over 19 2/3 innings of work. 

Cards supporters also saw some dismal efforts from relievers Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley on Opening Day, so Flaherty could be the dam necessary to prevent a flood of runs for the Blue Jays.  

There are plenty of encouraging trends for Over bettors, as these teams have exceeded the total in seven of their last eight meetings. The Over is also 4-1 in the Blue Jays’ last five games following an off day, 10-4 in their last 14 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last five home games, and 9-2 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Blue Jays vs Cardinals game info

Blue Jays vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Kevin Gausman embarks on his 11th year in the big leagues on Saturday afternoon. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound right-hander is a mediocre 76-82 with a 3.93 ERA for his career, but bettors should hone in on the last two seasons for him instead, where he’s 26-16 with a 3.07 ERA. 

Jack Flaherty (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Jack Flaherty has been bitten by the injury bug the last few years, and hasn’t pitched more than 79 innings in a season since 2019. However, he has shown great promise in his career for the Cardinals, going 34-25 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 523 1/3 innings dating back to 2017.

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Trend to know

The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six games after scoring five or more runs in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Cardinals

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