With a low-scoring Game 3 giving the New York Yankees a 2-1 lead in the series over the Houston Astros, Game 4 is set to be a rock fight with two struggling pitchers hitting the mound.
As the last two months of the regular season play out, the Astros are focused on catching the Texas Rangers, who they trail by 2.5 games in the AL West. In the meantime, they’re trying to hold off AL East in the Wild Card race, where the Yanks sit 3.5 games back. With free agent acquisition Carlos Rodón pitching, New York is in desperate need of him getting back to the level that made him the 12th highest-paid pitcher in the league this year.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees on Sunday, August 6.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees predictions
When Carlos Rodón signed with the New York Yankees this offseason, the two-time All-Star was thought to be one of the pieces that could put the Evil Empire over the top as they chase that elusive World Series.
Instead, injuries and poor play have made the former San Francisco Giant nothing more than a liability when he’s got the ball in his hand. He’s only started five games this season and given up at least four earned runs in three outings while watching his WHIP balloon to 1.479 while allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings.
With one of the highest fastball usage rates of any starting pitcher at 65.4% this season, he’s given up nearly as many home runs (5) using it as he has strikeouts (6).
Things will be made tougher on him by the matchup he’ll have with Jose Altuve, who hit his 200th career home run in Saturday’s loss.
The eight-time All-Star has been on a tear since returning to the 'Stros lineup after an oblique injury cost him 17 games. In his 39 plate appearances since then, he’s got 12 hits, four walks, two home runs, a triple, and a double.
To help the former MVP’s case even more, he’s got no trouble hitting fastballs this season with a .344 average, .738 slugging percentage, .474 wOBA, and a run value of nine. On the rare occasion Rodón goes to his slider (his second most used pitch this season at 29.3%), Altuve’s batting .348 against it.
My best bet: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+108)
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Yankees team total Under 4.5 (-115)
Astros moneyline (-105)
Since returning from the All-Star break, the Bronx Bombers have continued to frustrate their fans by showing some serious potential, like in Game 3’s win over Houston, but are still 9-11 since getting back to action.
The issue of poor pitching compounded with inconsistent run support has hurt them all year, and they’ve hit the team total under in 32 of their last 50 games as a result.
To win the series, they’ll need Aaron Judge to return to his mashing ways, however, since donning the Pinstripes once again after missing nearly two months with a toe injury, he’s gone just 5-for-23 with one homer.
Down in Houston, the defending World Series champs have fared better, going 13-8 since the break, with Altuve and Yordan Alvarez combining for 24 hits after both re-entering the lineup on July 26.
They’ll both be needed Sunday afternoon as Jose Urquidy is poised to pitch for the first time in months after missing 84 games.
Since the start of last season, including the four-game sweep in the ALCS, the Astros are 10-4 against New York and Altuve has 13 hits, three home runs, and four doubles in those contests.
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Astros vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros were road favorites in Game 3 — closing between -135 and -145 pretty much everywhere — and fell to the Yankees thanks to an offensive power outage.
As the teams take the field at Yankee Stadium for Game 4, the home squad has a little more oomph behind them. Most books opened with New York as the favorite between -115 and -124.
The line has shifted slightly with it hovering between -110 and -120. Some books are offering Houston at +100.
The total opened between 9 and 9.5 and has settled in at 9. The Under seems to be the play with Houston this season; they’ve hit the Under in 49 of their last 89 games while the Yanks have it in 32 of their last 58.
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Trend to know
The Astros have hit the moneyline in 46 of their last 77 games (+7.80 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, August 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTH, Amazon Prime |
Starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy (2-2, 5.20 ERA): Making his first start since April, the 28-year-old Urquidy struggled in his first six starts of the season before shoulder inflammation landed him on the injury list. Prior to the injury, he had given up 33 hits, 16 earned runs, 10 walks, and six home runs in 27 2/3 innings. In his final rehab start, he gave up five earned runs on nine hits in five innings, so expectations shouldn’t be too high in his return.
Carlos Rodon (1-4, 6.29 ERA): Another former All-Star underperforming for the Pinstripes this season, the 30-year-old Rodón has been nothing short of a wreck since making his debut in early July. Coming off a back injury, he’s yet to go six innings in a game and has nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (20). The six-year, $162 million contract he signed this past offseason must have New Yorkers sweating after seeing him give up six home runs and 17 earned runs in just 24 1/3 innings.
