The Toronto Blue Jays got a much-needed outstanding performance from Kevin Gausman last night, helping them even their four-game series with the visiting Houston Astros at one game apiece and giving their bullpen some rest in the process.
Tonight, they are hoping for a similar result as they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt fresh off paternity leave after the birth of his son last week. Bassitt has been one of the best pitchers in the American League ever since getting bombed in his first start of the season.
Does he have the stuff to shut down the defending champs? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs Blue Jays on June 7.
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
Chris Bassitt shut out the New York Mets over 7 2/3 innings on just three hits last Friday. An incredible performance when you consider his wife was about to go into labor. Imagine how good he’ll pitch without having to think about that.
Bassitt has been exactly what the Blue Jays had hoped for when they signed him to a deal this offseason. The right-hander has had just two bad outings all season, and since getting rocked in his first start of the season, he has pitched to a 2.42 ERA and limited opponents to a .172 batting average.
The defending champs have looked better at the plate the last couple of weeks, but they have been inconsistent, particularly against right-handers. We just saw Kevin Gausman dominate them last night, giving up just one run on four hits while striking out 13 over seven innings. Overall, Houston ranks 17th in OPS and 16th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Astros counter Bassitt with a right-hander of their own in Ronel Blanco. The 29-year-old made the team out of Spring Training as the team’s long reliever, but due to all the injuries to the Astros pitching staff, he was sent down the minors to stretch out as a starter. He was thrust into the rotation just last week.
Blanco’s first start of the season came against the Los Angeles Angels, and he had mixed results. He allowed just two earned runs but gave up seven hits and walked three while striking out five in 5 1/3 innings.
The Blue Jays have solid numbers against right-handers this season, but they have a slight tendency to make inexperienced guys look like Nolan Ryan. Toronto is also hitting just .238 with runners in scoring position, which ranks 12th in the American League. Only the Royals, Tigers, and A’s are worse.
Pitching will be the story early in this matchup, and the five-inning total of 5 is a touch too high.
My best bet: Under 5 first five innings (-109 at SIA)
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Astros vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
It seems like oddsmakers don’t really know what to do with the Blue Jays these days. They have generally been really good against teams not from the American League East, but have stunk within the division. The hitting numbers are solid overall, but it feels like the team hasn’t really been firing on all cylinders yet. And then there is Alek Manoah, who was sent down to their complex in Dunedin to find his game.
Despite the fact Manoah was struggling, he was opened as a -130 favorite for Game 1 of this series and was 100% overvalued. He then promptly got shelled before his demotion.
But then it looks like the books overreacted to that beatdown and undervalued Toronto with Gausman on the mound, opening him around -130.
The roller coaster continues today. Bassitt is on the board as a -150 favorite, and as good as he has been, this price seems a little steep against the reigning World Series champs.
While we’re not exactly sure what to expect from Bassitt’s counterpart in Blanco, he will be supported by one of the best bullpens in baseball. Houston’s relievers rank first in strikeouts per nine innings and fourth in xFIP. So, if Blanco gets into trouble, manager Dusty Baker can hand things over to the bullpen quickly and confidently.
Even though Bassitt has generally been good this year, when things have gone bad, they have been really bad. I would be happy to back Toronto in the -130 to -135 range here, but -150 or worse scares me off a bit.
Astros vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
The total for this AL matchup has bounced back and forth between 9 and 9.5. At 9.5, I like the full game Under nearly as much as the five-inning Under, but at 9, some of the value has dried up.
Like Houston, Toronto’s bullpen has also been a strength, ranking third in strikeouts per nine innings and fifth in xFIP. And with Gausman able to go seven innings last night, he was able to give most of the guys in the pen the day off, meaning they should be reasonably well-rested heading into tonight’s game.
Plus, the Blue Jays’ inability to cash in runs with any sort of consistency means they are scoring 3.9 runs per game over their last 13 games. Like I said, at 9.5, I would look hard at the Under.
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Ronel Blanco (1-0, 4.15 ERA): Blanco has had to step up to the Astros rotation due to a rash of injuries. The right-hander mostly uses a fastball that nearly averages 95 miles per hour and a wipeout slider.
Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.41 ERA): Bassitt returns after the birth of his son. The right-hander has been uber-consistent for the Jays this season, pitching at least six innings and allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 10-3 in Astros' last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 6-2-1 in the Blue Jays' last nine games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
