So, the Los Angeles Angels are going for it! Shohei Ohtani will have a halo on his cap for at least the next couple of months as the team made the first big trade prior to Tuesday’s deadline, bringing in Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the Chicago White Sox.
Whether it blows up in their face is a question for later. For now, Giolito gets thrown into the fire as he makes his first start with his new team just days after being traded. The opponent? The Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays have a tough lineup, but what will be tougher is the fact that they are countering Giolito with ace Kevin Gausman. The MLB odds have Toronto as a big home favorite, but is there value with Giolito as a dog in his Angels debut?
I break down this American League matchup and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions Angels vs. Blue Jays.
Angels vs Blue Jays odds
Angels vs Blue Jays predictions
Lucas Giolito’s season could fall into the category of interesting. Sometimes he looks like the guy who pitched to a 3.47 ERA between 2019 and 2021, and others he just looks like some dude on the mound getting ready to get lit up.
Overall, the numbers look pedestrian. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.44 expected ERA and one of the issues for Giolito is his strikeout numbers are down.
Over that three-season stretch which was the best of his career, the right-hander was regularly among the league leaders in strikeouts, punching out 31.3% of batters faced between 2019-2021. This season he is striking out 25.8%.
It’s a respectable number, just not nearly the best we’ve seen from him. As a result, he’s getting hit harder with much more frequency and the .436 expected slugging percentage he surrenders to opponents ranks in the 27th percentile in the MLB. He also ranks in the 29th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 22nd percentile in barrel rate.
So, it will be interesting to see how the move to the Los Angeles Angels will affect him and if any change will occur immediately, in a tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Frankly, I think it’s a bad matchup for him.
While the Blue Jays have problems coming up with that clutch hit at times, the overall numbers vs. right-handers are solid. They rank third in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ when facing righties this season. Toronto also has the seventh-lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching.
It wasn’t too long ago that the Jays faced Giolito. They met back on July 4 where he allowed just two runs on four hits over six innings but struck out just four batters. His strikeout total for tonight’s matchup is 5.5, a number he has stayed Under in seven of his last 12 starts. The tough matchup has me thinking he’ll stay below that number once again.
My best bet: Lucas Giolito Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Angels vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Giolito Under 5.5 strikeouts
Gausman 7+ strikeouts
Over 8.5
As always, our same-game parlay starts with our best bet which is of course Giolito to go Under 5.5 strikeouts. Now, let’s go the other way by adding Kevin Gausman to go for 7+ strikeouts.
The right-hander has racked up more strikeouts than anyone in the AL with his devastating splitter. The Angels have the ninth-highest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers. And Gausman has hit lucky No. 7 when it comes to Ks in 14 of his 20 starts and the last four overall.
And let’s keep this one simple. I hinted at liking the Over 8.5 above, so let’s throw that in there for a nice +384 payday.
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Angels vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as big as -220 on the moneyline but any Jays fans will tell you they would not be comfortable laying that number with this team. Early bettors agree as Toronto has moved down as low as -185 at some sportsbooks.
Let me give you an example of why Jays' fans would be wary of laying this hefty price tag with the home team.
Kevin Gausman is the Blue Jays ace. By all accounts, he is one of the better pitchers in the American League this season, who is pitching to a 3.65 xERA and is in the 95th percentile in K-rate. Over his last four starts, he has a 3.52 ERA and has struck out 35 batters in 23 innings. The Jays have lost all four of those games.
That said, at -185 or better I would have a very slight lean toward the home team for a few reasons: Gausman is on the mound, Giolito has been inconsistent, and the Angels bullpen is a mess. But I would not be making a large wager on them by any means.
The total I find a little more interesting. It’s on the board at 8.5 as of Friday afternoon. I expect Toronto to do its thing and get a few runs off Giolito. But the Jays could really thrive in the second half of the game against an Angels bullpen that ranks 24th in xFIP.
Meanwhile, yes, Gausman is great. But this Angels lineup led by the not-from-this-world Shohei Ohtani is just as potent. In fact, they rank fourth in OPS and fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching this season.
And we’ve seen the Toronto bullpen struggle since coming out of the All-Star break, so I would lean toward the Over 8.5 tonight.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 48 away games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Blue Jays
Angels vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, July 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Lucas Giolito (6-6, 3.79 ERA): Giolito is a bit of an enigma and his last two starts are a perfect example. The right-hander gave up eight runs on six hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings vs. the Mets. Then he shut out the Twins on six hits while striking out nine in five innings.
Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.18 ERA): Gausman has been one of the American League's best pitchers all season long. The right-hander leads the AL in strikeouts and FIP and 15 of his 20 starts have been quality starts.
