Alex Palou is off to a dominant start in the Indycar Series with four wins from five races, but he might not be favored when the green flag drops on the 109th Indy 500 at the world-famous Indianapolis Motor Speedway this Sunday, May 25.
Pato O'Ward is battling Palou for favoritism at "The Greatest Spectacle in Racing" along with Scott Dixon and pole-sitter Robert Shwartzman. And, of course, Kyle Larson is back to try his hand at the 2025 edition of "the double."
You won't want to miss our free betting picks for the Indianapolis 500.
Odds to win 2025 Indy 500
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Pato O'Ward | +450 |
| Alex Palou | +550 |
| Scott Dixon | +700 |
| Josef Newgarden | +750 |
| Takuma Sato | +900 |
| Scott McLaughlin | +950 |
| Robert Shwartzman | +1100 |
| Felix Rosenquist | +1400 |
| Kyle Larson | +1800 |
| David Malukas | +1800 |
| Alexander Rossi | +1800 |
| Christian Lundgaard | +2000 |
| Marcus Ericsson | +2000 |
| Conor Daly | +2500 |
| Colton Herta | +2500 |
| Will Power | +2500 |
| Santino Ferrucci | +2500 |
| Kyle Kirkwood | +3000 |
| Helio Castroneves | +3000 |
| Ed Carpenter | +6000 |
Odds as of 5-25.
Indy 500 field
As usual, a field of 33 will line up for the Indianapolis 500. Robert Shwartzman became the first rookie since 1983 (Teo Fabi) to win the pole. He is joined by Takuma Sato and Pato O'Ward on the front row.
Josef Newgarden and Will Power will start at the rear of the field for the 109th Indy 500 after Team Penske was caught modifying spec parts. Newgarden, the two-time defending winner of this race, was second only to Scott McLaughlin in fastest four-lap average in qualifying.
Indy 500 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5-24.
Indianapolis 500 favorites
Alex Palou (+550)
Yes, he’s 0-for-27 on ovals but it would be poetic justice for his first oval victory to come in the Indy 500.
Palou led 35 laps but was “taken to school” by Helio Castroneves in his runner-up finish in the 2021 Indianapolis 500. In 2022, Palou started second, led 47 laps, but suffered heartbreak in the event for a second consecutive year as he got caught coming to pit road just as caution came out on Lap 69 and was dealt a drive-through penalty for taking emergency service in closed pit, which he couldn’t overcome.
In 2023, he started on the pole, led 36 laps, but was dealt an unfortunate blow when Rinus VeeKay’s car made contact with his machine on pit road on Lap 94. Palou restarted 28th on Lap 100 and rallied to fourth.
Last year, he climbed from 14th to finish fourth. Sunday, he starts sixth.
Scott Dixon (+650)
He’s overdue with Dixon’s last “500” victory coming in 2008.
The six-time series champion has three Top-6 finishes in the last five. Dixon qualified fourth.
Scott McLaughlin (+900)
No one led as many oval laps last season as the 556 that McLaughlin circled out front. Next-best was Will Power with 240.
McLaughlin learned a lot dueling for last year’s win after leading 66 of 200 laps while ultimately finishing sixth. He had two oval victories last season at Iowa Speedway and the Milwaukee Mile.
Takuma Sato (+900)
Takuma Sato starts second for his third Top 5 start in the “500.” He won his previous two.
In 2017, he qualified fourth for Andretti Global, scoring the first of two “500” victories. In 2020, he started third in his victory for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
Indianapolis 500 sleepers
David Malukas (+1800)
The AJ Foyt Racing driver is great on ovals, and in his first season with the team, Malukas qualified seventh.
Marcus Ericsson (+2000)
Other than last year’s first-lap crash, Ericsson has two Top-2 finishes in the last three years. He starts ninth.
Conor Daly (+2500)
Daly said this is the best race car he’s had in the “500” since finishing 10th in 2019 with Andretti Global.
He was fifth, third, and eighth, respectively, in qualifying week practice and starts 11th. Daly has three consecutive Top-10 finishes in the Indy 500, including 69 laps led.
Santino Ferrucci (+2500)
In six Indianapolis 500 starts, the AJ Foyt Racing driver has never finished outside the Top 10. He led 11 laps in a third-place effort in 2023 and finished eighth last year.
Christian Rasmussen (+10000)
The Danish driver was the top finishing rookie last season in 12th. In last week’s practice, the Ed Carpenter Racing driver was 11th, 10th, eighth, and 14th, respectively, on the speed charts.
Despite two practice crashes, don’t sleep on Rasmussen.
Indianapolis 500 fades
Robert Shwartzman (+800)
Nothing against Robert Shwartzman, as he’s a fascinating story. However, just 10 rookie drivers have won in the 108-year history of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. Only three of those 10 have been since 1967. The last came in 2016.
Josef Newgarden (+1000)
The odds of a three-peat are low, seeing that no one in 108 years has accomplished that feat. However, Josef Newgarden is different and has a really fast car.
A lot of his peers mention his oval prowess is the best in the field. Newgarden has four Top-5 finishes in the last six years. However, that penalty forcing him to start 32nd is a dagger.
Felix Rosenqvist (+1200)
He has four consecutive Fast 12 qualifying appearances in the “500” but three of his last four results have been 27th. While the last Swede to qualify fifth won the race in 2022, I don’t like these odds.
Kyle Larson (+1800)
He qualified fifth and finished 18th last year, but is starting 21st this year. I don’t believe Larson will be a contender on Sunday.
He’s crashed two cars and is struggling to grasp the way to attack this car with the new hybrid unit.
The last time a driver won from 21st? 1924.
Colton Herta (+2500)
He qualified a backup car 29th and has never finished in the Top 5 in six “500” tries. Herta’s best finish is eighth in 2020.
Indianapolis 500 prop pick: Pato O'Ward Top 3 finish
Eventually, the Arrow McLaren driver is going to win this race. O’Ward (+500 outright) has two runner-up finishes in the last three years with four Top-6 results in five tries. He starts third.
The thing is, the last non-Team Penske Chevrolet team to win the “500” was Galles Racing in 1992. I’ll play it safe and take O’Ward for a Top 3 instead.
Pick: Pato O'Ward Top 3 finish (+155 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Indianapolis Motor Speedway track analysis
The Indianapolis Motor Speedway remains 2.5 miles and races the same as it has the last several years. A recent trend is 15 of the last 16 winners were over 30 years of age at the time of their victory.
Being a veteran-type race, the best play is to decipher through the elder statesmen of the series.
Indy 500 trends
- Just two of the last 14 Indy 500s have seen the driver lead the most laps win the race in the end.
- Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have won the last three “500s.”
Indy 500 info
| Location: | Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Speedway, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-25-2025 |
| Start time: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Previous Indianapolis 500 winners
Last year, Josef Newgarden became the first driver to win back-to-back Indy 500s since Helio Castroneves since 2001-02.
| Year | Winner |
| 2024 | Josef Newgarden |
| 2023 | Josef Newgarden |
| 2022 | Marcus Ericsson |
| 2021 | Helio Castroneves |
| 2020 | Takuma Sato |
| 2019 | Simon Pagenaud |
| 2018 | Will Power |
| 2017 | Takuma Sato |
| 2016 | Alexander Rossi |
| 2015 | Juan Pablo Montoya |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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