An international watchdog identified seven potential cases of betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, though the findings do not necessarily indicate match-fixing.
Key Takeaways
- FIFA said earlier this week that it didn’t find any cases of betting irregularities.
- Irregularities do not necessarily equal instances of match-fixing.
- Identified cases are related to red cards, large transactions, and new markets.
The Group of Copenhagen has not yet published its findings, but the Council of Europe posted a summary indicating the seven potential instances across the tournament’s 104 matches.
The Athletic reported the specifics of some of the instances. The first involved the red card South Africa’s Themba Zwane received in the tournament-opening match against Mexico. The midfielder was dismissed after he struck an opponent on the back of the neck while fighting to make a run into a dangerous attacking position.
In another reported incident, prediction market operator Polymarket processed $4.8 million in trades on Spain failing to defeat Cape Verde. Spain had a 91% chance of winning when the match kicked off July 15, yet the underdog, ranked 67th in FIFA’s world rankings at the time, frustrated the future champion to a goalless draw.
A third reported incident involved a three-and-a-half minute review by the video assistant referee that resulted in a disallowed goal by Ferran Torres in Spain's 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
Polymarket also created a prediction market on July 2 that asked users to predict whether U.S. men's national team striker Folarin Balogun would be available to face Belgium in the Round of 16 after receiving a red card earlier that day, sources told The Athletic. Balogun was cleared three days later, marking the second time in World Cup history that a red-card suspension was rescinded.
No similar markets were created for the 14 other players who received red cards during the tournament. None of their suspensions were lifted.
The Group of Copenhagen previously said it sent a written request for FIFA’s explanation on the Balogun decision, according to The Athletic.
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What was and wasn’t match-fixing?
FIFA’s Integrity Task Force announced earlier this week that it did not identify any suspicious betting activity during the World Cup. FIFA doubled down after being contacted by The Athletic in light of the Group of Copenhagen’s findings.
“It was the result of a collaborative effort by a large number of independent expert groups,” FIFA said. “Betting‑monitoring reports and other relevant data and information provided by Task Force members, as well as information received through available reporting mechanisms was analysed and shared among Task Force members in line with operational procedures. As a result, no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture was identified.”
The Group of Copenhagen and the Council of Europe are members of FIFA’s Integrity Task Force. Although they reached separate conclusions, the Group of Copenhagen noted its “yellow notices” are not necessarily indicative of match-fixing.
“(Yellow notices can describe) unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumours on social media, or source information,” the group wrote.
World Cup betting and trading interest
Betting during the World Cup reached extraordinary levels. The Group of Copenhagen estimated that $240 billion was wagered during the tournament, roughly twice the amount recorded during the 2022 competition in Qatar.
Prediction markets also reported extreme interest, including $50 billion in trades during the first month of the tournament in June. This was the first time that the Group of Copenhagen provided constant monitoring of prediction markets during the event.
“These prediction markets raise unprecedented issues: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace,” the group wrote. “Monitoring them is a first for an international competition.”
