One of the most-hyped NFL teams this offseason takes center stage against a divisional rival on Thursday night, and bettors appeared to follow their Super Bowl favorite-centric hunch early, but there are a few signs that point to a shift toward the underdog.
Key Takeaways
- The Rams opened as a 2.5-point favorite and have risen to a consensus -3.5.
- Bettors have been locked in on the Rams all offseason.
- A 17-hour time difference could be why under 48.5-points is a popular bet.
The Los Angeles Rams, the team with the shortest odds (+500) to win the championship and most-bet squad at BetMGM, kick off their campaign as a consensus 3.5-point favorite over the 49ers in Australia.
“We are still seeing more action on the Rams that aligns with the future action we have taken on the Rams in the offseason,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook head of football. “They are the best team on paper, and bettors are looking forward to seeing them live on the field to see if the talent matches up with their expectations.”
The line opened at 2.5 during the summer and has moved up to its current Week 1 spread, showing how much the public likes the NFC West favorite, which added star pass-rusher Myles Garrett in the offseason. Legendary defensive tackle Aaron Donald came out of retirement but isn’t suiting up in Week 1.
FanDuel told Covers earlier this week that the Rams were getting 71% of the money and 67% of the tickets in this contest. However, BetMGM said Thursday morning that the favorite is seeing a closer 60% of the handle and 57% of the bets.
DraftKings even showed more money (62%) had come in on San Francisco, but Los Angeles continued to dominate tickets at 68%.
“I think the Rams are probably going to continue to get bet in this game, not that there won't be San Francisco money,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello recently told Covers. “But the Rams are the team that everyone thinks is already penciled in to win the Super Bowl.”
| DraftKings Splits | FanDuel Splits | BetMGM Splits | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers-Rams (-3.5) |
LAR 68% bets SF 62% handle |
LAR 67% bets LAR 71% handle |
LAR 57% bets LAR 60% handle |
Moneyline believers
The Rams vs. 49ers moneyline market, however, is following a similar trend at DraftKings, which has taken 83% of the bets on the Rams at -198 to win outright. The 49ers are seeing 31% of the handle, so there are some +164 believers, especially at BetMGM. The online operator said San Francisco is getting the majority of moneyline tickets at 53%, while the Rams (-150) hold 55% of the money.
“The Rams have just got so much hype over the last couple of weeks,” Avello said. “On paper, they look certainly like the best team in the NFL, but when these two teams meet in a divisional game like this, anything could happen.”
Factoring in the clock
As was the case in Wednesday night’s season opener between the Patriots and Seahawks, bettors are leaning toward the under 48.5-point total. Just 35% of the money has come in on the over at BetMGM, which has seen 59% of the tickets written for the under.
DraftKings is reporting similar skewed numbers, with the under 48.5 getting 67% of the bets and a whopping 87% of the handle. It’s not a big surprise considering the teams are facing a 17-hour time difference between their home stadiums and the Melbourne-played game.
Finding the end zone
FanDuel bettors have already identified Niners running back Christian McCaffrey and Rams receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as the players most likely to score an anytime touchdown. Those three lead the bet count, while 49ers tight end Jake Tonges joins McCaffrey and Adams in the market’s highest handle.
Adams (+120) is the top ticket-taker to score at BetMGM, followed by Nacua (+105) and McCaffrey (-140). Bettors are also taking shots on 49ers receivers Mike Evans (+200) and Deebo Samuel (+340).
The most-bet player prop by tickets at BetMGM is McCaffrey to go over 4.5 receptions (-135). George Kittle, who’s returning from last year’s Achilles injury, is second, as bettors are fading his over 36.5 receiving yards. Rams rusher Kyren Williams going over his rushing yards (55.5) and attempts (12.5) are also popular prop bets for this game.
Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions - most bet prop on Thursday Night Football at @BetMGM @49ers running back caught 5+ balls in 15 of 19 games last year ✅
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 10, 2026
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