Heading into Wednesday’s first knockout-round match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the U.S. men’s national team is Caesars Sportsbook’s biggest liability to win the World Cup.
Key Takeaways
- Patriotic betting" and the USMNT's early success have fueled support in the World Cup winner market.
- The U.S. is still seeing plenty of support in Wednesday’s Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Bettors are expecting two American superstars to find the net.
Between “patriotic betting” before the event began last month and the additional support after the USMNT started the group stage with two wins, Caesars’ lead soccer trader Mark Bickerdike said the operator would take “significant” damage if the home-soil team goes all the way.
But that liability may have eased slightly after the U.S. lost its final Group D match, and in a win-or-go-home showdown Wednesday, futures odds have moved against the Americans.
“The USA has drifted slightly in the futures market, moving from +2,800 to +3,000 after the match versus Turkey,” Bickerdike said. “This adjustment reflects both their loss to Turkey and a tougher projected route to the final. Despite this, customer support has remained strong, and the USA continues to be one of the most popular selections in the futures market.”
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Round of 32 support
American bettors, who crushed sportsbooks during wins over Paraguay and Australia, are still heavily backing their team in Wednesday’s prime-time match in Santa Clara, California.
With odds of -260 to win in regulation in the Round of 32, DraftKings reported that 93% of the bets and 90% of the handle are backing the American squad.
BetMGM said Wednesday morning that five times more wagers have come in on this match than any other for the day, and nine times more bets have been placed on the U.S. moneyline (-275) than on any other team. BetMGM customers are heavily supporting over 2.5 goals, which is generating 87% of the market’s money.
Caesars has seen similar action for the U.S. to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina, even if the match extends into extra time.
“We’ve seen the majority of traffic backing the USMNT,” Bickerdike said. “Currently, 92% of our handle on the To Qualify market is on Mauricio Pochettino’s side. This aligns with the broader trend across the tournament, where our largest liabilities have consistently been tied to the USA.”
American goal-scorers
Bettors are also going back to the well in goal-scorer markets despite Folarin Balogun and Christian Pulisic failing to find the net in the previous match.
Balogun (+100) has the most tickets in the anytime goal markets at BetMGM, with Pulisic (+120) right behind him and ahead of England’s Harry Kane for Wednesday.
Balogun is also leading the first goal-scorer betting with odds of +300, while Pulisic at +350 is second again.
“(Caesars) bettors are also showing strong interest in a Christian Pulisic goal in the Round of 32 clash with Bosnia & Herzegovina,” Bickerdike said. “At present, over 50% of wagers on the Anytime Goalscorer market are backing Pulisic.”
