Prediction market customers are taking a strong interest in LeBron James' basketball future. The 41-year-old is mulling his next team options now that NBA teams are allowed to negotiate contracts with free agents.
Roughly $27 million in contracts have been traded at leading operators Kalshi and Polymarket on the superstar's next destination.
Key Takeaways
- Trading volume has spiked since James announced his departure from the Los Angeles Lakers.
- Golden State is the leading destination at Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Polymarket customers are also showing strong support for Miami.
ESPN’s David Purdum shared Tuesday evening that more than $12.8 million in prediction market contracts related to James’ next team had been traded at Kalshi in the preceding two days. That pushed the overall total over $17 million.
The trading volume surpassed $23 million as of Wednesday morning.
The LeBron James next team odds show that the Golden State Warriors are the favorite (38% at Kalshi, 34% at Polymarket). Traders at both platforms also believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are the next most-likely team (34% at Kalshi, 33% at Polymarket), and there’s a sizable discrepancy after them.
The Warriors climbed as high as 58% on Polymarket and 50% on Kalshi within the last week after reports suggested that Golden State was hoping to pair James with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
If there is a team that is going to challenge the Warriors and Cavaliers, it appears to be the Miami Heat (21% at Polymarket, 18% at Kalshi). James won two championships with the franchise in 2012 and 2013 and would have the chance to play with Bam Adebayo and the recently acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Heat had less than a 1% chance on Polymarket of landing James as recently as Monday. Kalshi never dropped them that low, but did have them at just 5% a week ago.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Where is the money going?
Kalshi does not show trading volume for individual outcomes on its platform, but Polymarket does.
Polymarket customers have bought a hair under $4.7 million in trades. The Los Angeles Lakers – who already announced James’ departure – have the highest trading volume at $776,706 (16.6% of the total volume).
The Heat lead the top three contenders with $407,443, which is 8.7% of the total volume. The Warriors are next with $359,374 (7.7%) in trades, followed by the Cavaliers’ $184,356 (3.9%).
The San Antonio Spurs are fourth in probability to sign James at Kalshi and Polymarket, although they have not been linked to him by prominent reporters. The Minnesota Timberwolves (3% at Kalshi, 2% at Polymarket) and Washington Wizards (3% at Kalshi, 1% at Polymarket) have.
Polymarket reported $128,654 (2.8%) of trades backing the Timberwolves and $112,492 (2.4%) supporting the Wizards.
NBA Finals probabilities
With heavy player movement, NBA Finals odds and probabilities are constantly changing. However, Kalshi and Polymarket share a common view of the favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2027.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (25% at Kalshi, 21% at Polymarket) and San Antonio Spurs (21% at Kalshi, 18% at Polymarket) are separated from the rest of the league. The defending-champion New York Knicks are third at 11% on both platforms, followed by the Boston Celtics (10% at Kalshi, 8% at Polymarket).
