NFL Wild Card Betting Insights: Wide-Open Bracket Leads to Little Consensus

Parity reigns supreme heading into the NFL's upcoming Wild Card Weekend. 

Key Takeaways

• Carolina is a popular underdog this weekend.
• Bettors are split on Bills-Jaguars at multiple sportsbooks.
• Operators need a 49ers upset of the Eagles. 

The Seattle Seahawks, the +390 betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, are on a bye. The Denver Broncos, who are listed third at FanDuel with odds of +650, are off as well, leaving 12 teams to battle it out Saturday through Monday to keep their seasons alive and disrupt the futures market. 

“The NFL playoffs are wide-open this year,” BetMGM senior trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “Any team could lift the Lombardi Trophy this year, and we wouldn't be surprised. The Chargers or Jaguars winning it all would be the best outcome for the sportsbook.”

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Tough to call

It’s not only hard to figure out who will win the NFL’s championship. Bettors are having a tough time coming to a consensus in most games this weekend. At the five sportsbooks that provided Covers with wild-card round insights this week, no team is getting 80% or more of the bets or handle, which is far from the norm during the regular season. 

The Chicago Bears at FanDuel, the Philadelphia Eagles at BetMGM and theScore Bet, and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Caesars are the only teams playing this weekend receiving at least 70% of the handle. Several sportsbooks are seeing a split in bets versus handle on multiple games. 

The Rams are the only team getting 90% of the moneyline wagers at any of the five sportsbooks. As for totals, the theme at FanDuel is unders, as the majority of bets and handle are leaning that way in five of the six games. 

Saturday’s starters

The postseason begins with a rematch from one of the biggest upsets of the regular season when the Los Angeles Rams visit the Carolina Panthers as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles failed to cover a similar number in a 31-28 outright loss in late November. 

That could be weighing heavily on some bettors, as home underdog Carolina is getting 68% of the Rams vs. Panthers bets at FanDuel and 62% at DraftKings. The Panthers are attracting more money at FanDuel, and the handle is split at DraftKings, but the Rams are getting a healthy 67% of the money at Caesars. 

In another NFC showdown, division rivals Green Bay and Chicago square off with the Packers laying 1.5 points on the road. BetMGM is the only sportsbook where the public is backing the favorite, which is the third most-bet team by handle this weekend. 

The home underdog Bears are getting as high as 77% of the money at FanDuel, and all five operators have taken more bets on Chicago than Green Bay in the most-bet game of the wild-card round at BetMGM.   

Sunday’s trio of showdowns

Sunday’s action begins with what could be the game of the week when Buffalo heads to Jacksonville with as favorable a path to the AFC Championship as Bills quarterback Josh Allen has seen in recent years. 

“We’re looking forward to an exciting weekend of NFL playoff football at Caesars Sportsbook,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football. “I’m particularly looking forward to Sunday’s contest between Buffalo and Jacksonville. That should be a great matchup, and that is evident with Buffalo being a slight 1-point favorite.”

Multiple sportsbooks are seeing plenty of action on both teams. TheScore Bet is the only one of the five that has taken more Bills vs. Jaguars bets and money on Buffalo. FanDuel reported 57% of the bets and 65% of the handle are on Jacksonville, and DraftKings is nearly 50/50 on both. 

Two NFC powerhouses meet on Sunday when Philadelphia visits San Francisco laying the second-highest point spread of the round at -5.5. BetMGM reported that the Eagles are the second most-bet team by handle for the operator. Caesars has taken just 52% of the handle on the favorite, but most of the sportsbooks won’t be hoping for Philadelphia to cover on Sunday. 

“At this point, we’ll be pulling for San Francisco on Sunday, as Philly covering the spread would be one of the biggest results of the weekend,” Adrian Horton, theScore Bet’s North American senior director of trading, said. “The Eagles are by far the most-bet spread market by handle out of the six games, and we’ve moved them out two points to -5.5.” 

The Patriots head into the Sunday primetime game as the most-bet team by spread at BetMGM, but their opponent is the most-bet team by handle. A 3.5-point underdog, L.A. is leading in Chargers vs. Patriots money there and at Caesars. 

Drake Maye as a favorite of 3 or more points is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS per @Bet_Labs ✅@Patriots -3.5 vs. Chargers in Wild Card

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 7, 2026

The other operators have seen a heavy handle lean toward the home favorite, and New England is also getting the majority of wagers at each sportsbook. The Patriots are also a highly-popular moneyline selection, getting over 88% of the handle at theScore Bet.   

Monday nightcap

In the wild-card finale on Monday, the Texans are a field-goal favorite on the road against the Steelers, but that’s not deterring bettors. Houston is getting the most money and handle at all five operators. However, it’s not by a ton. There’s still plenty of action coming in on the Steelers at Caesars, which reported 46% of the wagers are backing the home underdog. 

Houston is the third most-bet team at BetMGM by tickets and getting 58% of the bets there, but the Steelers have still seen 55% of the money there and at DraftKings. Pittsburgh (+140) is getting the second-most moneyline wagers at BetMGM behind only the Panthers (+450).   

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