The Detroit Pistons' odds to win the Eastern Conference and NBA Finals took a major hit after Cade Cunningham was revealed to have suffered a collapsed lung.
Cunningham is also off the board in the NBA MVP market at several top sportsbooks, while he sits at less than a 1% chance to win the award at Kalshi.
Key Takeaways
- Cunningham exited after five minutes of action after diving for a loose ball Tuesday.
- Recent players who sustained a collapsed lung missed an average of 10.8 games.
- The league’s CBA requires Cunningham to miss no more than 10 more games to be eligible for end-of-season awards.
Cunningham will be sidelined for an extended period, ESPN's Shams Charania reported Thursday. He played five minutes Tuesday against the Washington Wizards before leaving with what was initially called back spasms.
Cade Cunningham won’t return tonight due to back spasms. This is the play that took him out pic.twitter.com/Mj5ZHcWL7G
— Pistons Talk (@Pistons__Talk) March 17, 2026
The Pistons lead the East with a record of 49-19, three-and-a-half games ahead of the Boston Celtics. Oddsmakers had still preferred Boston in the race to reach and win the NBA Finals, but Detroit’s indefinite loss of its star player set it back even further.
DraftKings dropped the Pistons from +2,000 to +2,500 in NBA title odds after the injury was announced. Although they remain seventh in the odds ladder, they’re down to a 3.9% implied chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy this summer.
The Pistons also lengthened from +400 to +700 to win the East, dropping from a 20% to 12.5% probability. That puts them behind the Celtics (+145), Cleveland Cavaliers (+330), and New York Knicks (+370).
Cunningham will be re-evaluated on April 2, the day the Pistons host the Minnesota Timberwolves.
There will be five more opportunities after that to get on the court before the postseason begins.
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Cunningham out of MVP consideration?
Cunningham had been leading one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds over the last two seasons, taking the Pistons from 14-68 and the worst record in the league in 2023-24, to a sixth-place finish and playoff appearance in 2024-25, to the best record in the conference this season.
The 24-year-old is averaging 24.5 points (13th), 9.9 assists (second), and 5.6 rebounds in 34.4 minutes per game.
Despite his excellence, the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement may leave him ineligible for the league’s highest individual honor.
Written to disincentivize tanking, the CBA mandates players must make at least 65 appearances, including 63 appearances of at least 20 minutes, during the 82-game regular season to be eligible for awards. That includes MVP and All-NBA spots.
With 61 games under his belt, Cunningham won’t have a chance to win the award if he can’t get back on the court by April 6. He’s been viewed as a top-five contender in NBA MVP odds for the majority of the season, but as mentioned above, he’s off the board at most online sportsbooks.
According to Yahoo Sports' Kevin O’Connor, recent players who sustained a collapsed lungs include:
- CJ McCollum (2023): 12 missed games in three-and-a-half weeks
- CJ McCollum (2021): 18 missed games in six weeks
- Terrence Jones (2015): Six missed games in two weeks
- Gerald Wallace (2009): Seven missed games in three weeks
If Cunningham misses the average number of contests (about 11) between the above players, he will come up one short of the 64-game minimum.
Playoff impact
If the Pistons can maintain their position atop the East, they would match up with the lowest-seeded team remaining after the play-in tournament.
The Pistons have a winning record against three of the four teams currently projected to participate in the play-in. The Miami Heat are the exception, winning two of their three encounters.
