The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament went more the way of the sportsbook than the previous weekend, and multiple major liabilities at BetMGM were eliminated.
Key Takeaways
- Favorites went .500 against the spread Thursday through Sunday.
- UConn is BetMGM’s biggest liability remaining in the futures market.
- Final Four spreads are tight heading into Saturday.
Favorites were 6-6 against the spread, including 1-3 on Thursday, with eight winning outright heading into the Final Four.
“The second weekend of the tournament was favorable for the sportsbook with many underdogs covering or winning outright,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said. “Illinois upsetting Houston on Thursday was the best outcome for the book. On the futures market, the sportsbook is in good shape with UConn the only remaining liability.”
No. 2 UConn stayed alive by rallying from a 15-point halftime deficit to hit a late game-winning 3-pointer to upset No. 1 seed Duke in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
No. 6 Tennessee also pulled an outright upset as a 2.5-point underdog, beating No. 2 Iowa State 76-62 in the Sweet 16 on Friday. No. 9 Iowa’s 77-71 victory over fourth-seeded Nebraska was the other underdog outright winner.
Men's College Basketball National Championship betting at @BetMGM
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) March 30, 2026
"The second weekend of the tournament was favorable for the sportsbook with many underdogs covering or winning outright. Illinois upsetting Houston on Thursday was the best outcome for the book. On the futures… pic.twitter.com/NWjh6qCSu9
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Liabilities update
The Blue Devils were the third most-bet team by handle and tickets to win the national championship at BetMGM. At theScore Bet, no team had more wagers and money than Duke, which held 16.7% of the handle.
UConn opened at +1,400 in BetMGM’s national title market last year, and dipped to as short as +900 before beginning the NCAAs at +2,200. The Huskies are getting 5.8% of the futures tickets and 6.6% of the handle.
Entering the tournament, BetMGM’s three biggest liabilities were Miami (OH), St. John’s, and Arkansas. Miami (OH) didn’t make it out of the first round. The Red Storm got knocked out by Duke in the Sweet 16, while Arkansas was easily eliminated by Arizona in the same round.
On to the Final Four
| Final Four | BetMGM Spread | FanDuel Spread | Caesars Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona | Michigan -1.5 (-105) | Michigan -1.5 (-104) | Michigan -1 (-110) |
| No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn |
Illinois -1.5 (-115) | Illinois -2.5 (-105) | Illinois -2 (-110) |
Oddsmakers have No. 1 Michigan as a slight favorite over No. 1 Arizona in what could be the de facto national title game in Saturday’s second Final Four matchup. Both teams have looked nearly unbeatable and have covered the spread in three of their four tournament games as sizable favorites.
Fresh off that massive upset of Duke, the Huskies are an underdog by as many as 2.5 points in the early game Saturday to an Illini team that has won all four of its tourney games by double digits, including once as an underdog.
At theScore Bet, Arizona is getting nearly 68% of the handle as a 1.5-point underdog so far, but Michigan has taken 52.3% of the bets. Over 67% of the money in the late game is on Illinois -2.5, with UConn getting 62.7% of the early wagers.
Major bets
In the national championship market at BetMGM, Michigan is a +165 favorite to emerge from the Final Four, with the Wildcats right behind them at +180. Illinois is a distant third at +475 in March Madness odds, while the Huskies are the longest shot to win two more games at +550.
Arizona leads the futures market with 11.3% of the tickets and 18.4% of the handle at BetMGM. Michigan is second with 10.4% of the bets and 12.1% of the money.
Since the start of the Sweet 16, Arizona leads in tickets with 16.4%, but Illinois has dominated with 38.1% of the handle.
BetMGM reported that one bettor wagered $50,000 on Arizona at +450 to win it all, leading to a potential $225,000 payout. The online sportsbook also took a $25,000 bet to win $225,000 on UConn at +900 to win the national title.
