A Polymarket user lost nearly $1 million when Spain failed to beat Cabo Verde in Monday’s 0-0 draw.
Key Takeaways
- Spain didn’t suffer a draw or loss at Euro 2024 but couldn't win its World Cup opener.
- A win would have resulted in an $86,875.48 profit for the trader.
- A Kalshi user won just under $100,000 by risking $2.4 million on Cabo Verde failing to beat Spain.
Polymarket confirmed it received $999,068 in contract purchases from a user who predicted Spain, which had a co-leading 16% chance of winning the World Cup at noon Monday, to beat Cabo Verde.
Cabo Verde has a total population of approximately 530,000, which is smaller than Sacramento, California.
Had Spain managed to beat its tiny opponent, the trade would have paid out approximately $1.1 million, generating an $86,875.48 profit. Instead, Cabo Verde overcame a 92% chance of a Spain win and secured one point.
🚨BREAKING: Someone just put $1M on Spain to WIN their match vs Cape Verde today
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026
This pays out is $1,085,943.48 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/7ODo3dJ7Pl
Despite shocking the tournament favorite and reigning European champion, Cabo Verde still has just a 3% chance of winning Group H and is the most likely team to finish last at 44%, just ahead of Saudi Arabia at 42%.
Spain has a 73% chance of winning Group H, although that is down from 81% at noon Monday. Its probability dropped as low as 62% before it rebounded to its current value.
Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay all have one point after one match in the group stage.
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Sneaking over the line
While Polymarket’s million-dollar trader was left high and dry, a Kalshi user was given relief after the sweat of a lifetime during Monday’s match.
The company posted before kick-off that one user had put more than $2.3 million on Cabo Verde not beating Spain. The position carried a potential payout of roughly $2.4 million and a profit of $96,347.21.
NEW: One Kalshi trader has $2,312,333 on Cape Verde to NOT win over Spain today.
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) June 15, 2026
$2,408,680 potential payout on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/I6PP1GyZfL
While the user ultimately received their winnings, it didn’t come without lots of teeth-clenching and fingernail-biting. Spain did not score after creating 2.1 expected goals, while Cabo Verde was also held scoreless on 0.2 expected goals but saw a late header saved.
Spain’s 74% possession dwarfed its African rival’s, but La Roja couldn’t sneak a goal past 40-year-old overnight sensation Vozinha.
After Cabo Verde’s draw with Spain, goalkeeper Vozinha has now reached 5.7m Instagram followers from 50k before the game, with the figure continuing to increase! 🤩📈 pic.twitter.com/7Ne9tmv51J
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) June 16, 2026
Cabo Verde’s next match will be against Uruguay on Sunday. Polymarket has Uruguay down for a 67% chance of winning, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 12% chance of a loss.
Spain and Saudi Arabia will also take the pitch Sunday. There is an 88% chance of a Spain win, a 9% chance of a draw, and a 4% chance of Saudi Arabia winning.
