It’s not every year that two potentially generational talents begin playing professionally. But it’s happening, and sports betting sites and their users are now trying to wrap their heads around the arrival and impact of the NBA’s Victor Wembanyama and the NHL’s Connor Bedard.
Wembanyama, the seven-footer from France, will play his first NBA regular-season game tonight for the San Antonio Spurs, who are somehow once again in possession of another promising big man.
Tom Gable, the director of race and sportsbook for the Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, said a case can be made for maybe 70 NBA players whose absence or return would have some significant effect on the point spread of a game.
Without even having suited up for regular-season play, Wembanyama is one of those players, with Gable valuing his presence at around 2.5 points to the spread.
“Now, obviously, with any rookie, him included, you're going to adjust that quickly as data is collected,” Gable told Covers in an interview. “And for … Wembanyama, it really comes down to not just the scoring, it's his defense. The guy has an eight-foot wingspan. So he is going to block shots. He's going to certainly be very effective on the defensive end. But the other question is how much usage is he really going to get.”
The next Wilt?
Gable’s question revolves around the recent trend of managing the workload of NBA players, which could apply to Wembanyama as well. But the rookie has played some hard games in Europe, Gable noted, and has already made a splash with videos of his flexibility.
“He has the potential, obviously, to be this major, major superstar, and we've never seen something like him,” Gable said. “So it's tough, but I certainly put him already in that upper tier of being worth something to the number … and I can't really say anybody else in this rookie class is really worth anything at this point to the number as we start off the NBA season.”
The preseason show put on by Wembanyama suggests there is something very different about him. He’s huge, he’s fast, he can shoot, he can block — it’s all eye-opening. That is something bookmakers are trying to price as quickly as possible and to swiftly re-price if need be.
Bettors, meanwhile, are already buying the Wembanyama hype in bold ways. The Rush Street Interactive-owned BetRivers and PlaySugarHouse sportsbooks reported earlier this week that the Spur, at +15000 odds, is the third-most wagered-upon option to win NBA MVP, something a rookie hasn’t done for a half-century.
“Only two first-year players — Wilt Chamberlain (1959-60) and Wes Unseld (1968-69) — have earned the distinction,” the bookmaker noted. “Unsurprisingly, Wembanyama is the runaway leader in wagering for Rookie of the Year. His odds are a minuscule -139.”
Looking forward to Wemby's debut pic.twitter.com/ayB5bmfQhJ
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) October 25, 2023
Hockey is a bit of a different beast for bettors and bookmakers. More players, quicker shifts, and puck luck complicate the picture. Even so, bettors have been buying stock in Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard, an 18-year-old Canadian drafted first overall this past year.
Bedard has four points in seven games for Chicago. And while he may lack the jarring presence of Wembanyama, his expectations are still relatively high for an NHL rookie.
BetMGM reported recently that 77.6% of the money is on Bedard to win the league’s Rookie of the Year award, and that his odds for that honor sat at around -165, or an implied probability of 62.26%.
Save the drama for Wembanyama
Still, the Bedard effect is not as pronounced as that of Wembanyama, particularly in the U.S. That could change if Bedard leads Chicago back to the Stanley Cup, but, for now, it isn’t having a huge bearing on the lines at the Borgata.
“Even with somebody like him, who could be a generational talent, the NHL … [is] the fourth-most popular American professional sport in terms of betting,” Gable said.
It’s also been a relatively muted year for rookie hype in the NFL, which remains the top sport for bookmakers and bettors in North America. There is arguably no Wembanyama-like presence to watch, even if first-year players such as Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua are stringing together some impressive performances.
“You can't get too dramatic, especially in the NFL, where it's very much a week-to-week league,” Gable said. “Somebody can have a great game or two, but you don't want to overreact to that.”
Scouting the college ranks
SuperBook Sports at the Westgate Las Vegas offered offensive and defensive rookie of the year awards for the NFL season, which got “moderate attention” from bettors, according to Jay Kornegay, the vice president of race and sportsbook operations. The odds for those awards were based on the information out there about the rookies, including their college pedigrees.
“I would compare our oddsmaking similar to what scouts use to create their power rankings,” Kornegay said in an email. “Say a highly touted prospect that’s coming from a Power 5 conference school versus a sixth-round choice from a smaller program, our odds would reflect that.”
SuperBook, however, does not dangle any NHL rookie markets.
“It doesn’t get any traction like the NFL rookies … unfortunately,” Kornegay said.
