Prediction markets are experiencing a surge in activity ahead of the start of the MLB postseason. Market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket surpassed $140 million in trading in World Series prediction markets as of lunchtime Tuesday.
- Kalshi and Polymarket recorded over $15 million in World Series trades within the last 24 hours.
- The Dodgers are runaway favorites with at least a 30% probability at both platforms.
- Prediction markets did not report significant movement over the last week.
World Series contracts offered by prediction platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to which team will win the next league championship, and traders are taking full advantage.
More than $15 million in trades were tracked in the 24 hours between Monday and noon Tuesday. Kalshi’s total grew from $84.7 million to $100 million and counting, while Polymarket’s rose from $41.4 million to $42 million.
Users of both prediction platforms are favoring the back-to-back champion Los Angeles Dodgers to win the title. A third straight World Series triumph would put them in rarefied air with the Oakland Athletics (1972-74) and New York Yankees (1936-39, 1949-53, 1998-2000) as the only teams to be crowned MLB's best team in three straight seasons.
Kalshi users are slightly more bullish on the Dodgers, giving L.A. a 31% probability of winning the title. Polymarket traders nearly agree but list them at a 30% chance. Both platforms have the Milwaukee Brewers as the standalone top challenger. Kalshi lists them at 17%, while Polymarket has them at 16%.
The remaining group of contenders is where more noticeable differences emerge between the platforms, offering traders opportunities to find more favorable prices for their contracts of choice.
World Series prediction markets
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 31% | 30% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 17% | 16% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 11% | 10% |
| New York Yankees | 8.7% | 9% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 6.7% | 7.2% |
| San Diego Padres | 6.1% | 6.6% |
| Atlanta Braves | 5.9% | 6.3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5% | 6.1% |
The Tampa Bay Rays sit at an 11% chance of winning the World Series at Kalshi and 10% at Polymarket. Kalshi traders gave each of the top three contenders a one-percentage-point higher probability than Polymarket users.
The platforms agree on the order of the next five contenders: the Guardians, Padres, Braves, Red Sox, and Philadelphia Phillies. The largest disparity in likelihood between the platforms pertains to the Red Sox, who have a 6.1% probability at Polymarket and a 5% chance at Kalshi.
A simple average of the probabilities listed on the two platforms produces the following World Series probabilities:
- Dodgers - 30.5%
- Brewers - 16.5%
- Rays - 10.5%
- Yankees - 8.9%
- Guardians - 7%
- Padres - 6.4%
- Braves - 6.1%
- Red Sox - 5.6%
- Phillies - 4.5%
- Cubs - 4.4%
- Astros - 3.8%
- White Sox - 2.3%
The teams’ probabilities have not changed significantly over the last week.
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Dodgers' path to the World Series
The Dodgers are the obvious front-runner in World Series prediction markets. But while they have dominated recent postseasons, they struggled against many of their possible opponents in the playoff bracket.
L.A.’s 100-62 regular-season record only ranked second in the National League behind the Brewers (103-59). The Dodgers also lost four of seven head-to-head matchups after sweeping the Brew Crew in the NLCS last year.
The Dodgers also did not win its season series against any other NL playoff team except the Phillies, and they only won two games against playoff opponents since Aug. 14. Their playoff run will begin against either the Braves or Phillies.
