Centralized and on-chain prediction markets closed November with record-breaking activity, marking the strongest month on record for Kalshi and Polymarket.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi and Polymarket ended November with the highest monthly trading volumes in their histories.
- Nevada regulators intensified pressure on Kalshi as a federal judge dissolved the injunction that had allowed the exchange to operate in the state.
- Polymarket broadened its footprint with expanded categories and rising global demand for event-based trading.
According to The Block’s data dashboard, both posted significant month-on-month volume increases as retail traders responded to headline-driven macro events, deeper integrations, and expanding product sets.
The surge added further momentum to a year in which these platforms have increasingly dominated global prediction market flows. Market data indicated that the two firms now account for the vast majority of monthly activity in the sector, reflecting rapid growth in liquidity and user engagement.
November produced substantial gains for both platforms. Kalshi's monthly spot volume increased 32% from $4.4 billion in October to $5.8 billion in November, the largest absolute monthly gain in the company's history.
Polymarket reported its own record, rising from $3.02 billion in October to more than $3.7 billion, a 23.8% increase that continued a streak of new highs that began over the summer.
The surge reflected growing retail interest in using prediction markets to assess real-time sentiment across elections, economic indicators, and global developments. People can buy and sell contracts on these platforms that depend on whether certain events occur or not.
As traders reacted to ongoing political and economic instability, volumes surged on the marketplaces, making them even more important to the company.
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Kalshi under more pressure from regulators
As Kalshi’s trading volume surged in November, the platform gained attention elsewhere, particularly from Nevada’s gambling regulator. Kalshi faced increasing pressure as a federal judge lifted the temporary injunction that had let the company do business in the state.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said agreements had been reached with Robinhood and Crypto.com to halt operations pending a hearing, but Kalshi did not agree.
U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Gordon ruled that classifying Kalshi's contracts under federal commodities oversight would disrupt long-standing state and tribal control over sports wagering. He wrote that such an interpretation would shift authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a manner that Congress did not intend.
Kalshi has said that the CFTC's federal authority is stronger than that of state gaming regulators.
Polymarket grows its global presence
While Kalshi faced legal issues, Polymarket continued to grow. The company has made itself known as a crypto-based platform where users can bet on the outcomes of global events, sports, and politics. Speaking with 60 Minutes, Shayne Coplan, Polymarket's CEO, said that the model enables the creation of highly responsive probability signals based on user behavior.
"It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone else creates some sort of a super crystal ball," Coplan told 60 Minutes.
The platform features approximately 15 categories and over 10,000 active questions at all times. Its political markets have gotten a lot of attention, especially during the 2024 U.S. presidential race, when people bet around $3.6 billion on the outcome.
