Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has stated that he believes betting markets can better answer complex questions than traditional forecasting tools, as noted in an interview with 60 Minutes.
Key Takeaways
- Shayne Coplan calls Polymarket is ‘the most accurate thing we have as mankind’.
- CFTC grants Polymarket full exchange designation.
- Rival Kalshi faces a sweeping class action over alleged illegal sports betting.
Speaking ahead of the company’s U.S. return, Coplan claimed that prediction markets are "the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now."
Launched in 2020 when Coplan was just 22, Polymarket lets users wager real money on more than 10,000 live questions ranging from geopolitics to sports and entertainment. As bettors buy positions, prices shift in real time, producing market-driven probabilities, which according to Coplan, makes it a tool for predicting real-world events.
“You make money if you’re right. You lose money if you’re wrong. And as a result, it creates this information that’s really useful,” he said.
Roughly $3.6 billion was wagered on prediction markets for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as on other international political issues, such as Venezuela’s leadership crisis and Ireland’s elections, alongside sports market contracts.
But Polymarket’s rapid rise came with regulatory hurdles.
After the platform launched without CFTC approval, the agency fined it $1.4 million in 2022 and forced it to block U.S. users. FBI agents later seized Coplan’s devices during an investigation, though that was dropped after the 2025 administration change.
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CFTC approval clears path for US return
That change in fortunes for Coplan and his company was followed by $10 million in backing from Donald Trump Jr. and a $2 billion investment from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. And the final remaining hurdle ahead of Polymarket’s U.S. return has now been cleared.
Last week, Polymarket secured an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC, allowing it to operate as a fully regulated exchange.
The designation means it will face strict surveillance, clearing procedures, and reporting rules, but will enable Americans to trade via registered futures commission merchants and brokerages.
Kalshi hit with sweeping class action as legal battles escalate
While Polymarket moves toward compliance, its rival, Kalshi, is facing a fresh legal battle in the form of a new nationwide class action.
The action accuses the company of effectively operating an illegal sports betting platform, misleading customers by marketing traditional bets as trades, and acting as a sportsbook through subsidiaries and hedge-fund partners.
Kalshi rejects the claims and argues that it operates as a federally regulated designated contract market.
The lawsuit arrives amid a wave of state-level crackdowns and ongoing litigation involving Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and other operators, even as prediction markets gain mainstream traction.
With billions of dollars flowing into the sector and Wall Street now embracing the data, the battle over how these markets should be regulated is intensifying.
