Prediction market notional volume exceeded $14 billion over the weekend, making it the largest two-day trading total ever, behind an incredibly busy sports weekend.
- Kalshi surpassed $10 billion over the two-day weekend.
- The NFL, NBA, World Series, and college football highlighted a busy sports weekend.
- Chiefs-Seahawks drew the most volume of any game.
Popular trading exchange Kalshi generated $10.06 billion, more than 70% of the total volume produced by 10 of the 11 prediction market operators tracked by Aldrin Research. More than $3.3 billion was traded on sports, with nine operators reporting $9.6 billion in combo plays.
This was the first weekend since the start of the NBA season and the beginning of the World Series, creating more trading opportunities than previous periods.
Saturday resulted in the largest notional volume day ever, eclipsing $7.2 billion, a 20% week-over-week increase.
Combo plays accounted for nearly $5 billion. More than $1.7 billion was traded on sports, including $750 million on individual college football games and $212 million on the NBA.
Notional trading volume for the last NFL Sunday of October surpassed $6.8 billion, an 18% week-over-week spike. Kalshi generated more than $442 million on the league as part of the operator’s $4.77 billion trading day.
Growing by the week
Kalshi’s notional volume grew over 20% on Saturday versus the prior week's same day and 16% on Sunday.
Polymarket’s U.S. division surged 15% on Saturday, reaching $811.2 million. The operator generated another $755.4 million on Sunday to surpass $1.5 billion in weekend trading, with full results of individual games still pending.
DraftKings Predictions held the third spot Saturday-Sunday with $684 million in notional volume, up from $567 million the previous weekend.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Strong Sunday
At Kalshi, over $110 million in notional volume was produced on the Kansas City-Seattle primetime Sunday game. Green Bay-Detroit and San Francisco-Atlanta also surpassed $50 million each for the operator.
Pittsburgh-New Orleans and New York Giants-Houston rounded out Kalshi’s top five NFL game trading, but the La Liga soccer match between Barcelona and Real Madrid finished ahead of both with a volume of more than $68 million.
Memphis-Sacramento was Kalshi’s most traded NBA game on Sunday, reaching $15.2 million.
Sensational Saturday
Ole Miss-Texas generated the highest notional volume on Saturday with more than $60 million traded at Kalshi alone. Houston-Utah, BYU-UCF, and Tennessee-South Carolina all went over $25 million for the operator.
Game 2 of the World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers beat out all but two college football games with a volume of $35.1 million at Kalshi, down from the $39.7 million generated during Game 1 on Friday.
Three NBA games cracked the top 10 at Kalshi on Saturday.
