Joey Chestnut is back in action at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Friday following a one-year ban, and oddsmakers reacted favorably to the event’s 16-time winner.
Key takeaways
- Chesnut is between a -2,500 and -1,600 favorite to win his 17th mustard yellow belt.
- Patrick Bertoletti has the second-most action in an outright winner market Chestnut dominated.
- Bettors love wagering on the Over/Under hot dog consumed markets.
“Joey Chestnut is a massive favorite, which has led bettors to wager on other competitors,” BetMGM Trading Strategy Manager Halvor Egeland said. “Patrick Bertoletti winning is the worst result for the sportsbook.”
Chesnut claimed he was banned from the 2024 contest, ending an eight-year streak of him putting on the mustard yellow belt, because he signed a sponsorship deal with Nathan’s competitor Impossible Foods. With a wide-open contest, it turned out to be a good year for some sports betting operators.
It appears one-sided this Fourth of July. Chesnut is a -2,500 favorite at the online sportsbook. Bertoletti, who won the Chesnut-less men’s contest last year with 58 hot dogs in 10 minutes, is second at +1,600 to retain the title.
Owning the competition
ESPN BET lists Chesnut -1,600 in the men’s winner market. He received 86.8% of the handle and 65.4% of the bets. Bertoletti (+1,200) saw 11.5% of the bets and just 6.9% of the handle.
At DraftKings, Chesnut (-1,800) has 81% of the handle and 52% of the bets. The sportsbook lists six total participants in the outright winner market, and “the field” is getting 3% of the handle and 17% of the wagers, third behind Chesnut and Bertoletti. James Webb and Geoffrey Esper picked up 3% of the combined handle.
In BetMGM's “without Chesnut” market, Bertoletti has 92% of the money as the -165 favorite.
Popular markets
The most popular betting markets are the total number of hot dogs consumed. ESPN BET said Chesnut’s Over/Under 71.5 hot dogs market received the most bets. His Over is getting 69.9% of the handle and 50% of the bets.
At BetMGM, 86% of the money came in on the other side of 71.5 hot dogs.
“Chestnut’s Under hot dogs eaten is the most popular market,” Egeland said. “I can't claim to be an expert, but I know heat and humidity can have an impact so we will be monitoring tomorrow's weather.”
Bertoletti’s Under 49.5 hot dogs has 85.7% of the bets and 73.5% of the handle at ESPN BET, which reported this market saw the most money.
In the women’s contest, BetMGM said 99% of the money in Miki Sudo’s 44.5 total market is on the Over. Sudo won her 10th title in 2024 and set the women’s record with 51 hot dogs eaten.
BetMGM is offering contest betting markets in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Wyoming, as well as Ontario, Canada.
What a tradition
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest was first held in 1972, and the event takes place on Coney Island in Brooklyn, New York, most years. Managed by the Major League Eating, the event is broadcast on ESPN with the women’s contest scheduled for 10:45 a.m. and the men's at 12 noon.
Men’s and women’s contestants have 10 minutes to eat as many hot dogs and buns as possible. Water and other beverages are allowed, but judges can assess penalties for messy eating and regurgitation. Winners of each division receive $10,000 each. Second place gets $5,000, with third taking home $2,500.
