Had you told someone in the second week of July that Tuesday’s start of a three-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers could be a head-to-head battle for the AL Central title, people might have thought you were crazy.
Key Takeaways
- The Tigers were once a -20,000 favorite to win the AL West, but it’s dwindled to -150 at FanDuel
- The Guardians are on a 15-2 run since early September
- Their pivotal three-game series begins Tuesday, with All-Star pitcher Tarik Skubal on the mound for Detroit
It would have been an understandable assumption, considering the difference in odds to win the division was enormously in Detroit’s favor. On July 8, the Tigers improved to 59-34 overall. They had a 14-game lead in the division and were a -20,000 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to capture the AL Central crown.
Meanwhile, the Guardians were 42-48 on that date and 15.5 games behind the Tigers. With odds of +13,000 at DraftKings, a division title sounded like a pipe dream, and even winning a wild-card spot felt unattainable.
Fast forward to Tuesday, and there is just one game separating the two AL Central foes. The Guardians (84-72) are +128 now at FanDuel to claim the division. The Tigers (85-71) are just -158, falling from as short as -20,000 at the online sportsbook.
| Date range | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel | ESPN BET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8-9 | DET -20,000 CLE +15,000 |
DET -5,000 CLE +13,000 |
N/A | DET -20,000 CLE +10,000 |
| Aug. 23-26 | DET -10,000 CLE +3,500 |
DET -1,100 CLE +10,000 |
DET -20,000 CLE +22,500 |
DET -20,000 CLE +8,000 |
| Sept. 23 | DET -160 CLE +120 |
DET -160 CLE +125 |
DET -158 CLE +128 |
DET -150 CLE +115 |
What happened?
While it’s head-scratching, it's pretty simple how that massive division lead crumbled. The Tigers started playing terribly. The Guardians got smoking hot.
Detroit went 11-14 in July. Cleveland kept its head above water and gained some ground with a 14-12 mark in July, but lost key pitchers Luis Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to an MLB investigation into gambling violations.
Not much changed the following month. The Guardians still sat 11.5 games out of first place on Aug. 26. Detroit was 78-56, enjoying a 9.5-game lead at the top and still sitting at -20,000 at ESPN BET to win the division.
Things reversed in September. Still 11 games back on Sept. 5, the Guardians have gone on a 15-2 run. A 6-2 loss to Minnesota on Sunday halted a 10-game winning streak. Over the last two weeks, ESPN BET reported that 87% of the tickets and 89% of the handle on the AL Central winner market have been on the Guardians.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are 4-11 since Sept. 5. They still held a 9.5-game division lead on Sept. 10, but then lost nine of their last 10 games behind an anaemic offense that’s averaged just 2.5 runs per game during that stretch. Detroit heads into the pivotal series on a six-game losing skid.
Only the Rockies and Twins have produced a worse September.
It all comes down to this
ESPN BET lists Cleveland as a -125 favorite to win the series on the road. Even against Detroit’s All-Star pitcher Tarik Skubal, the Guardians are just a +135 underdog on Tuesday.
Cleveland can take a two-game lead in the AL Central with a sweep or tie for the top spot with two of three against the Tigers heading into the weekend’s regular-season series finale. A series win for Detroit would give it a two-game lead.
The Guardians just have to avoid a sweep to hold any tiebreaker. They’re 6-4 on the season against Detroit. The Tigers wrap up the season at Boston, while the Guardians host Texas.
Cleveland is getting the majority of the bets (57%) and handle (53%) at ESPN BET to upset the Tigers in Game 1 of the series.
