The upcoming week of college football figures to play an influential role in determining the leaders in national championship odds.
Key Takeaways
- Penn State is first in tickets and second in handle for national championship bets.
- LSU is second in tickets despite opening at +2,000.
- Three top-25 matchups this weekend promise to shake up the odds board.
Penn State opened as a +850 underdog to win the College Football Playoff, behind Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, and Oregon.
The Nittany Lions haven’t faced a ranked opponent just yet, but at +600 in national championship odds, they’re nearly even with the Buckeyes. They also have the highest percentage of tickets (10.1) and the second-highest split of the handle (13.2%).
Ho-hum Ohio State is actually down to +550 from its +450 odds at market opening, and it only has 9.2% of tickets and 9.4% of the handle, both of which are the fourth highest.
Three teams are tied for third in championship odds at +700. One of those is Oregon, which will take on Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday in a matchup that could make a big imapct on the odds board.
The Ducks have remained at +700 since odds were first published, yet they only have 4.3% of tickets and 3.7% of the handle backing them. Those marks rank ninth and eighth, respectively.
The other teams at +700 are Texas and Georgia. The Longhorns opened at +550 and have the highest share of the handle (14.4%) and the third-highest split of tickets (9.4%), while the Bulldogs opened at +600 and have 5.1% of tickets (eighth) and 3.5% of the handle (10th).
Yet to be mentioned is LSU, which ranks second in tickets (9.7%) and third in handle (11.1%) despite opening at +2,000. The Tigers are down to +1,000 ahead of their weekend matchup with Ole Miss.
Alabama has also managed to stabilize its season after a disastrous Week 1 loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide are only +1,300 after opening at +1,200 and have 6.1% of tickets (sixth) and 6.4% of the handle (fifth).
Week 5 odds, matchups to watch
This has the potential to be the most important weekend of college football action until the postseason. A plethora of matchups between ranked opponents and championship contenders means the odds board will undergo an inevitable evolution before next week.
The first of the priority matchups is between No. 4 LSU and No. 13 Ole Miss, which will take place at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday. BetMGM has Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite despite being +3,500 in national championship odds, well off LSU's pace.
At 7:30 p.m., No. 6 Oregon will visit No. 3 Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, which the Ducks won 45-37.
No. 5 Georgia will host No. 17 Alabama at 7:30 as a -3 favorite. Alabama beat Georgia in a back-and-forth thriller in Tuscaloosa last year, 41-34, but still has lots to prove after its Week 1 loss to FSU.
No. 21 USC and No. 23 Illinois will also battle in a ranked showdown, albeit the two teams are much lower in national championship futures odds. BetMGM has USC as a -6.5 favorite.
The elephant in the room
One team that hasn’t been mentioned is Clemson, which has plummeted from +2,000 at the time of opening to +10,000 amid a 1-3 start to the year. The Tigers were responsible for 7.3% of tickets and 6.1% of the handle, both the fifth-highest marks.
Fellow ACC schools Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech have been the biggest beneficiaries of Clemson's struggles. Their odds movement was as follows:
Miami: +3,500 to +1,500
Florida State: +10,000 to +5,000
Georgia Tech: +12,500 to +10,000
Notre Dame’s disappointing start to the year also coincided in its odds lengthening from +1,200 to +2,500.
