Bettors are backing the hometown hero in the Home Run Derby, but it’s not Bryce Harper.
Key Takeaways
- Kyle Schwarber is a big liability at sportsbooks.
- MLB changed the Home Run Derby’s format for this year.
- Bryce Harper and Junior Caminero are two other popular picks.
The other Philadelphia Phillies’ star, Kyle Schwarber, is the favorite and most-bet participant in Monday night’s event at Citizens Bank Park in the City of Brotherly Love. FanDuel told Covers that Schwarber is getting 22% of the tickets and 26% of the handle with Home Run Derby odds of +290.
Home Run Derby Winner Splits @DKSports
— DK Insights (@DKInsights_) July 13, 2026
28%💰| 25%🎟️on Kyle Schwarber
21%💰| 18%🎟️on Junior Caminero
13%💰| 13%🎟️on Munetaka Murakami
11%💰| 12%🎟️on Bryce Harper
9%💰| 12%🎟️on Ben Rice
8%💰| 8%🎟️on Jordan Walker
6%💰| 7%🎟️on Jac Caglianone
4%💰| 6%🎟️on Willson Contreras pic.twitter.com/XqXXdzRvbQ
BetMGM reported that Schwarber (+310) has seen an even higher 24.8% of the bets and 29.1% of the money, making the Phillies’ designated hitter the operator’s biggest liability.
Schwarber leads all MLB players with 32 home runs at the All-Star Break, and he’s competing in his third Home Run Derby. No other participant on Monday has more than 20% of the handle.
Kyle Schwarber's MLB-leading 32nd home run 💣 pic.twitter.com/AFu9Czlvph
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2026
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New format
Bettors could also be backing Schwarber because of MLB’s format change. The Home Run Derby is ditching the clock, instead opting for a swing-based system for each round. Participants will get 20 swings in Round 1, 15 in Round 2, and 15 in the final round, attempting to hit as many homers as possible in those ranges.
If they hit a home run on their final swing of a round, they can keep going until the ball doesn’t go out.
This format also removes the first-round matchup brackets of years past, and tiebreakers in the first round are determined by home run distance and a swing-off in the later two rounds.
The main competition
Schwarber’s teammate, Harper, is BetMGM’s second-biggest liability. His odds have shortened from +900 to +850, third in the market, and Harper is getting 16.1% of the tickets and 14.4% of the money.
Only three players EVER have won the Home Run Derby in their home ballpark (h/t @SlangsonSports)
— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2026
The @Phillies have TWO chances to add to this exclusive list with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper 💪💪@TMobile #HRDerby pic.twitter.com/pfnzKXKgkI
Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero is second on the odds list at +380 at FanDuel, where he’s getting 19% of the tickets and 20% of the money. He’s getting just over 17% of the handle at BetMGM and is third on the book’s liability list.
BetMGM has seen Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami’s odds in the Home Run Derby winner market go from +500 to +475, and the Japanese star has 10.7% of the bets and 10.3% of the handle.
Taking a shot?
New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice is a popular longshot. With odds of +1,000, 16% of the bet count and money are backing the Bronx Bomber at FanDuel. He’s fourth at BetMGM, where his odds have shortened from +1,100 to +850, with more than 11% of both the tickets and handle.
Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone (+650) is getting 8.8% of the money at BetMGM, while St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker (+750) has taken 5.2% of the handle. Boston’s Wilson Contreras (+1,500) has seen the least amount of tickets (5.3%) and handle (2.4%).
