Defending World Cup champion Argentina is now the least likely team to win the 2026 competition, according to the latest prediction market data from Kalshi.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets believe there’s about a 1-in-5.7 chance that Argentina lifts the trophy.
- France is the top favorite at 39.7%, 18.1% above the closest challenger.
- Lionel Messi has a 31% chance of winning the Golden Boot, second to Kylian Mbappe.
Nearly $1.2 billion has been traded in Kalshi’s World Cup outright winner prediction market. What began as a pool of 48 contestants is down to just four contenders, with only four games remaining.
Argentina took down France in penalty kicks in the 2022 World Cup Final after being knotted 3-3 at the end of extra time. The instant classic was one of the most dramatic in the history of the sport and could set the stage for a rematch between the two nations this year.
Argentina (17.7% chance of winning the final) first needs to get past England. The Three Lions have a 21.6% chance of lifting the World Cup trophy - second among all contenders - and a 54% chance of beating the defending champion in the semifinal, according to Kalshi.
England and Argentina have both been met with questions at various times throughout the tournament. Thomas Tuchel’s side played to a frustrating 0-0 draw with Ghana in the group stage, was down 1-0 to DR Congo in the Round of 32, and also fell behind Norway in the quarterfinal before being rescued by Jude Bellingham’s brace in a 2-1 result.
Argentina has won every match it has played but was not convincing in any of its knockout matches. It needed extra time to secure a 3-2 win over Cape Verde, pulled out a historic comeback in regulation after being down 2-0 to Egypt after 78 minutes, and went to extra time against 10-man Switzerland in a 3-1 quarterfinal victory.
There’s a 33% chance that the upcoming matchup will need to be settled in extra time and penalties, according to Kalshi. England has a 37% chance of winning in regulation, while Argentina is at 31%.
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France leads the pack
The World Cup prediction market favorite is France, which has a strong lead at 39.7%, 18.1% ahead of second-place England.
The French had a 16.3% chance of winning the tournament when it began June 11, which was second to Spain. It quickly jumped into the leading position and has only increased its lead as the tournament has progressed.
Spain, meanwhile, is down to 20.8%. It dipped as low as 10.4% but climbed back to its current mark after knockout wins against Austria (3-0), Portugal (1-0), and Belgium (2-1).
Kalshi users believe that France has a 59% chance of advancing to the final and a 42% chance of winning in regulation. Spain has a 41% chance of advancing and a 29% chance of winning within the 90 minutes. There is a 30% chance the match is tied after regulation.
Golden Boot Race
The 2022 World Cup final was a near pick’em. France had crept to about a -125 favorite by kick-off, but Argentina ultimately prevailed behind two goals and a shootout conversion from Lionel Messi.
While prediction market traders have consistently backed France throughout this tournament, Argentina has stagnated. It peaked as high as 21.3% to win the competition June 28 but has been stuck at around 18% since.
With a potential rematch in the cards, the Golden Boot race is also entering a decisive time. Kylian Mbappe, who leads the pack with eight goals (and three assists in case a tiebreaker is needed), has a 60% chance of claiming the honor. Messi, who's also on eight tallies (and two assists), has a 31% chance.
England’s Harry Kane (4%) and Bellingham (3%) are both still in firm contention, although they are two goals behind.
English goals in the semifinal would seemingly come from either Kane or Bellingham, which would vault them in the Golden Boot race, and assuming prediction markets are correct, England is in a better position to reach the final than Argentina.
